Patriots vs. Giants: It’s the final week of preseason, which means we’re that much closer to real NFL football and seeing starters on the field consistently. But just because most of the first-stringers won’t play doesn’t mean we can’t find an edge. Let’s do just that with my NFL best bet between the New York Giants and New England Patriots.
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Giants vs. Patriots Best Bet – August 21st
Can rookie QB Jaxson Dart continue his success in the preseason?
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The Giants are currently consensus -6.5 favorites – a hefty number in a preseason setting with mostly backups on the field. That line reflects their dominance so far, with wins over the Bills (34-25) and Jets (31-12). It also helps that New York has one of the deepest preseason quarterback rooms in the league, featuring Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, Jaxson Dart, and Tommy DeVito. Wilson isn’t expected to play tonight, but the other three should still provide firepower.
Rookie Jaxson Dart is expected to handle most of the snaps. Through two preseason games, he’s been sharp – completing 26 of 35 passes for 291 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
New England isn’t expected to roll out any starters, meaning it’ll be Joshua Dobbs and Ben Wooldridge taking the snaps under center.
Where’s the Edge?
I get why the public is backing the Giants – they’ve rolled through the preseason and have enough depth at quarterback to control games. Still, laying nearly a touchdown in a preseason spot is tough to swallow.
The edge, in my view, lies with New England’s offense. Dobbs and Wooldridge may not be headline names, but they’ve been efficient. Dobbs has gone 16-of-28 for 151 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, while Wooldridge has completed 16-of-25 for 187 yards and a score.
Furthermore, New England’s backfield has plenty of competition. While Rhamondre Stevenson won’t be playing – and it’s unlikely we see much of Antonio Gibson or rookie TreVeyon Henderson – the depth behind them matters here. Several other running backs are still battling for that fourth spot.
That’s the key here: backups are fighting for jobs, and many will approach this like their Super Bowl. The Giants have already surrendered 25 points to Buffalo’s backups and 12 to the Jets (with Justin Fields attempting just five passes). Against an offense with any kind of pulse, this defense looks vulnerable – or at least enough that I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing them to hold a team under 16 points.
That brings me to the bet: Patriots Team Total Over 15.5. The Giants have done enough this preseason to feel good heading into Week 1, which could lead to a more laissez-faire approach tonight. That makes me hesitant to back the full-game over – though I’d still lean that way – and instead puts me on New England’s side.
With a new coach, motivated skill players and a number that feels just a touch too low, the Patriots’ team total going over looks like the best play.
Best Bet: Patriots Team Total Over 15.5 (-115) odds via Bovada
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