Huge divisional matchup in the NFC South this week on Thursday Night Football. The Buccaneers host the Falcons as they look to create a little distance between themselves and the Carolina Panthers in the race for the divisional crown. Let’s jump right into this one.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Raymond James Stadium; Tampa, Florida
- Date: Thursday, December 11th, 2025
- Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins (7-7; 2024 – 250.6 YPG | 18 TD | 16 INT)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield (10-7; 2024 – 264.7 YPG | 41 TD | 16 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Slipin & Slidin in the South
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost five of their last seven games and have watched their lead on the NFC South slip right through their fingers. The Buccs are now tied with the Carolina Panthers for 1st place in the division with two of their remaining four games coming against that very Panthers squad.
Tampa’s been decimated by injuries this year. Mike Evans is set to play under 15 games for the first time in his career and that’ll end his streak of 11-straight seasons with 1,000 yards receiving. Chris Godwin’s played in just five games this year with Bucky Irving only playing in six.
Despite some great early play from the rookie Emeka Egbuka; he’s struggled in recent weeks. Last week we saw Egbuka drop what should have been an easy touchdown to tie the game against New Orleans. Instead the Buccs lost 24-20 and moved into a tie with Carolina for top spot in the South.
Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 23rd in points allowed, 27th in pass yards allowed, 25th in opponent yards per play and 30th in opponent redzone efficiency. The Buccs are allowing opponents to convert 69% of their redzone drives into touchdowns and it’s been compounded by the Buccs inability to score.
The offense ranks 17th in points, 20th in pass yards, 25th in yards per play and 20th in rushing yards. Luckily this week, Mike, Bucky and Chris will be back on the field; ready for Thursday Night Football.
Red Birds
The Falcons have been one of the toughest teams to watch this year. The offense ranks 27th in points, 17th in redzone efficiency, 31st in third down conversion rate and 18th in pass yards. This all despite having some of the best offensive talent in the NFL. The Falcons will once again have Kirk Cousins under center and Drake London will miss his 4th straight game.
Cousins has been okay this year, he’s gone 1-3 as a starter; averaging 192.0 pass yards per game with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s completing 62.4% of his passes and when you look at his opponents it gets even less impressive. Cousins has faced the Dolphins, Saints, Jets and Seahawks.
The defense for Atlanta this year seemed to take the next step this year, but when your on the field for so long it gets that much harder. The team ranks 9th in opponent pass yards, 11th in opponent yards per play and have the third most sacks on the year. The same Falcons pass rush that was a detriment last year, became an asset.
Despite the elevated play from the defense, the offense just couldn’t do their part. Now the Falcons are 4-9, without their QB1 and going into a road divisional game against a fully healthy Buccaneers offense. The Falcons need all hands on deck if they’re going to keep this one close.
Thursday Night’s Best Bets
Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown (+180) | Lucky Rebel
I understand it’s his first game back from a broken collarbone, but Mike Evans has been missed here in Tampa Bay. The team’s gone 2-5 without him on the field this year and that’s exactly how it went last year. Going back to last season, in their L14 games without Mike, the offense is averaging just 21.6 points per game and Baker’s got a passer rating of 89.9. Tampa went 4-10 in those 14 games.
In the team’s 16 games with Mike on the field, the offense averages 28.9 points per game, Baker’s passer rating jumps to 108.4 and they won 13 of the 16 games. Mike Evans may be the most important piece of this Buccaneers offense.
Tampa Bay’s got the 25th ranked redzone offense, converting just 50% of their redzone trips into touchdowns. It’s been a big reason they’ve lost so many games with Evans on the sidelines and with him back, I’m expecting this to be the place they deploy him heaviest.
Mike lead the team with a 27.6% target share when the season began and that jumped to 35.7% in the redzone. Without him on the field, we saw Egbuka lead the team in redzone target share but no one dominated it in the way Mike did. In those first three games, Mike was the 1st read target on 55.6% of redzone pass plays.
When they get in the redzone, Baker’s consistently looking one way and that’s right at Mike Evans.
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