The Dolphins leave Miami for the cold temperatures of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Steelers host Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins this week, with the Steelers looking to take control of the AFC North.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Acrisure Stadium; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
- Date: Sunday, December 15th, 2025
- Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers (5-12; 2024 – 229.2 YPG | 28 TD | 11 INT)
- Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa (6-5; 2024 – 260.6 YPG | 19 TD | 7 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Steeletown, Pennysylania
Fresh off a win against the Baltimore Ravens, the Steelers look take control of the AFC North this week with a win over the Dolphins. The Ravens won their game against the Bengals this week, eliminating the Bengals from the playoffs and keep themselves alive and contending for the division.
The Steelers are 7-6 this year, Rodgers has played 12 of the Steelers 13 games and he’s been under center for all seven of the team’s wins. Rodgers is averaging just shy of 200 yards per game this year but he is completing 65.4% of his passes and has 20 touchdowns to 7 interceptions.
Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 14th in points, but 23rd in pass yards and 29th in rush yards. The team’s averaging 5.1 yards per play (21st) and before last week it looked like the team just couldn’t throw deep. That all ended last week when we saw Aaron Rodgers and D.K. Metcalf go crazy on the Ravens.
Rodgers completed 67% of his passes last week, threw for 284 yards and 1 touchdown. He threw the ball 34 times with Metcalf seeing the lion’s share of targets (12). Metcalf caught 7 of the 12 targets for 148 yards but was held out of the endzone. This week he lines up against a defense that ranks 13th in pass yards allowed but has had the benefit o playing some really bad teams over the last four weeks.
Tua Too Cold?
Six teams in the AFC were eliminated from the postseason this week and somehow the Dolphins weren’t one them. The Bengals, Chiefs, Raiders, Browns, Jets and Titans will all miss the playoffs and the Dolphins will still get a chance to compete for one of those last spots. They’ve won four in a row and a win tonight against Pittsburgh would be huge towards their goal.
Tua’s been bad this year, there’s no sugar coating it. It feels like a yearly occurrence, the weather gets cold and we’re all reminded how bad Tua can be in temperatures below freezing. Well, this year he’s just been bad for a majority of the year.
Tua’s averaging 185.8 pass yards per game this year and he’s got 18 touchdowns passes to go with 14 interceptions. He continues to turn the ball over and it’s really put this Miami in consistently bad spots on the field and left points off the board.
The offense ranks 22nd in points scored, 21st in redzone efficiency, 26th in first downs, 27th in third down conversion rate and 27th in pass yards per game. The only thing keeping this offense alive is De’Von Achane. Last week he finishe with 195 yards on just 9 total touches and left the game in the first half with a rib injury.
Prior to last week, Achane has touched the ball 20+ times in five straight games, with the Dolphins winning four of the five games. Miami’s recorded six total wins this year and in five of those wins, Achane has touched the ball 20+ times. The one time he didn’t was last week, he had 9 touches for 105 yard and the Dolphins were up 24-10 before halftime.
Achane is the engine that makes this offense go and with the extra day of rest, it looks like he’ll be a full go tonight in Pittsburgh.
Monday Night’s Best Bets
D.K. Metcalf o59.5 ReceivingYards (+102) | Lucky Rebel
The Dolphins defense isn’t good. They’ve won five of their last six games but four of those five wins came against losing teams, all four slated to miss the playoffs. The offenses all rank in the bottom 10 and this the Dolphins face off with the red hot Aaron Rodgers.
The Dolphins allow the 11th-highest rate of open targets to opposing wideouts while having the 13th-ranked team coverage grade. It’s because the lack of a pass rush in Miami and it’s leaving this secondary vulnerable for far too long. Miami’s got the worst graded pass rush in the NFL and rank bottom 10 in quick pressure rate.
Rodgers has been elite this year when he’s able to avoid pressure and the proof’s in the pudding. When kept clean, Rodgers is completing 73% of his passes for 16 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. When facing pressure he’s completion percentage drops to 42% with 4 touchdowns an 2 interceptions.
Last week we saw a similar situation play out against the Ravens. Baltimore struggles to get pressure and it resulted in Metcalf seeing more deep targets in one game than he had in the three weeks prior put together. He caught all three of his deep targets for 121 yards, averaging 40.3 yards per catch and an average depth of target of 32.7 yards.
Rodgers can still put it out there and this Dolphins defense has given up a 30+ yard pass in 11 of their 13 games this year. They’ve had a tough schedule over the last five weeks and I’m expecting Metcalf to give this defense some issues.
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