Divisional matchup in the AFC East. We’ve got the Bills and Dolphins, two teams that know each other really well. Let’s jump right into this matchup.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Highmark Stadium; Orchard Park, New York
- Date: Thursday, September 18th, 2025
- Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa (6-5; 2024 – 260.6 YPG | 19 TD | 7 INT)
- Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (13-4; 2024 – 219.5 YPG | 28 TD | 6 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Kings of the East
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have owned the AFC East for a few years now. The Bills have won five straight division titles, finished top two in the AFC in four of those five seasons and Josh Allen’s coming off his first ever Most Valuable Player Award. Buffalo remain one of the league’s top teams every single year, the only problem is they run into Patrick Mahomes, every single year.
Josh Allen’s thrown for 542 yards through two games, thrown two touchdowns and scored two more with his legs. The Bills look poise for another deep run in the postseason and it all begins with their MVP. In addition to Allen, the Bills’ have done a great job of surrounding their quarterback with talent. James Cook is averaging 88 rush yards per game so far this year, 5.2 yards per carry and he’s already got three touchdowns.
Second year wide receiver Keon Coleman’s got 11 receptions through two games, recording 138 yards through the air and one touchdown. Coleman recorded 8 of his 11 receptions in the team’s home opener, due in part to being matched up with Sauce Gardener last week, in addition to the Bills not needing to throw the ball much in their 30-10 win over the Jets.
Something feels different in Buffalo this year, or maybe it’s just the blue cheese dressing finally getting to me.
Tank for Tua…’s Replacement?
Miami looks bad this year. Plenty of people called the regression of this Dolphins team well before the season began, but through two weeks of the season; it’s somehow been even worse. The Dolphins lost to the Daniel Jones Colts in Week 1 and followed it up by allowing Drake Maye and the Patriots to score 33 points in their Week 2 loss.
Tua looked better in Week 2, throwing for 315 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. He completed 81% of his passes against a terrible New England secondary and now faces a Bills team that allowed only 83 passing yards in Week 2. Both teams come into this one off a short week with less time to prepare. This being a divisional matchup, these two squads have plenty of history going up against each other.
Tua’s played the Bills nine times in his career and he’s recorded just one win. He averaged 203.3 yards per game in these matchups and he’s thrown 9 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. On the flip side, Allen’s dominated the Dolphins. Allen’s gone 12-2 against Miami in his career, averaging 266.9 pass yards per game, completing 66% of his passes and throwing 37 touchdowns with just eight interceptions.
Thursday Night’s Best Bets
Dalton Kincaid o29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Dalton Kincaid’s now in his third season in the NFL and it feels like the perfect time for the young tight end’s breakout year. Kincaid was drafted in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft and it’s because of what he brought offensively. The Vegas native recorded 2,600 yards through the air during his time in College, add that to his 35 touchdowns across 55 total games and you can see why Buffalo drafted this kid.
Kincaid played 16 games in his rookie year, averaging 42.5 yards per game and finishing the season with 73 receptions. Last year, Kincaid only played in 13 games; averaging 34.5 yards per game and finishing the season with just 44 receptions. The sophomore slump hit Kincaid hard and it’s why Kincaid isn’t talked about as an elite tight end. That all changes this year.
Through two games so far, Kincaid’s reeled in eight of his 10 targets, recording 85 yards receiving and one touchdown. Miami’s defense has struggled against opposing tight ends so far this year, allowing Tyler Warren to record seven catches for 76 yards in the rookie’s debut and giving up three catches for 38 yards to Austin Hooper in Week 2.
Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown (+175)
Tyreek Hill gets his first touchdown of the season on Thursday Night Football. Hill finally broke the 100-yard mark last week, finishing with seven catches 109 yards and no touchdowns. The 31-year old wide receiver’s had his fair share of struggles over the last year, but when Tua’s healthy the Cheetah puts up numbers.
With Tua under center, Hill averages 96.4 receiving yards per game, 6.6 receptions per game and he’s caught 27 touchdowns in 42 games together. Divisional matchup with the Dolphins staring down the barrel of a 0-3 start this year, it’s time for Tyreek to step up.
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