Even though we’re just two weeks into the season, it’s worth taking an early look at divisional odds in the futures market. Numbers can swing too far based on small sample sizes, creating opportunities where the market either overreacts or lags behind.
Let’s take a look at a couple divisions and see which teams may offer a decent price.
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Is Daniel Jones prepared to lead the Colts to the Playoffs?
AFC South: It feels like this is the division we have to begin with. The Daniel Jones-led Colts have surprised us all with a 2-0 start, and oddsmakers now list them as the favorite. Yes, they deserve to sit atop the board given that Jacksonville is 1-1 while Houston and Tennessee are both 0-2. But I’m not sold on Indy actually winning this division.
AFC South Odds (Via BetOnline):
- Colts (+135)
- Jaguars (+190)
- Texans (+260)
- Titans (16/1)
Their résumé is flimsy: they dominated what might be the league’s worst team in Miami, then squeaked past a shaky Broncos squad thanks to a penalty that set up the game-winning kick. Indy’s defense isn’t as strong as it looked in Week 1 and should get exposed as the season progresses.
Right now, I don’t see a must-bet. But this week’s Jaguars–Texans matchup is worth circling. Both teams look messy, but whichever side you think wins that game is likely the one to target before the odds adjust. The Colts probably beat the Titans this weekend, so their number may not budge much, though.
Of the group, I lean Houston. At +260, with solid coaching and a formidable defense, the Texans may offer the best long-term value. They realistically should have beaten the Bucs in Week 2 and now have a strong opportunity to bounce back against the Jaguars this Sunday. As long as C.J. Stroud can remember how to throw the football, this team can absolutely contend.
NFC South: Everybody’s darling in the NFC is sitting atop the oddsboard, but will they stay there? Perhaps, but there’s value on the team right below them to make this race interesting.
NFC South Odds (Via BetOnline):
- Bucs (-225)
- Falcons (+210)
- Panthers (16/1)
- Saints (28/1)
Let’s just go ahead and say that there is no chance that either the Panthers or Saints compete for this division. They are both at the bottom of the barrel throughout the entire NFL.
Now, I’ve been on the record as saying Tampa Bay might be the luckiest team in the NFL so far this season. In Week 1, they were outplayed statistically by the Falcons but escaped thanks to a missed game-tying kick from Younghoe Koo. In Week 2, they managed to edge past a sluggish Texans offense and squeak out a win with a late game-winning drive.
They benefited from fumble luck, Baker had a would-be interception dropped that turned into a touchdown, and they somehow held the Texans scoreless on four straight red-zone plays while also forcing a missed two-point conversion in the fourth quarter.
Of course, credit goes to the Bucs for hanging tough and to Baker Mayfield for engineering a clutch, game-winning drive. He’s played well, and the roster is loaded with talent.
That said, Atlanta looks like the more well-rounded team. Defensively, the Falcons rank first in EPA per play and fifth in success rate allowed, while the Bucs sit 17th and 15th in those categories. Offensively, Tampa Bay holds the edge for now, but I expect Atlanta to close that gap in the coming weeks.
Both teams should win this Sunday, so the odds likely won’t move much right away. But after this weekend, it may be the right time to fade Tampa. The Bucs face a brutal stretch with the Eagles, a trip to Seattle, the 49ers, and then a road game against the Lions. Their good fortune is bound to swing the other way, while the Falcons should keep trending up.
Atlanta looks like the team to target after this weekend.
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