Detroit Lions vs New York Giants
In the midst of a five-game losing streak, it looks like the skid is poised to continue for the visiting New York Giants as they head to Detroit to face the Lions.
The G-Men sit as double-digit underdogs at +10.5 after oddsmakers opened at +9.5. Even with the expectation that Jaxson Dart returns under center, bettors aren’t buying into this team. Is the market movement justified, or do the Giants deserve more credit? I’ll break it all down with my Detroit Lions vs New York Giants preview and prediction.
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Detroit Lions vs New York Giants Preview & Prop Bet
Can Jared Goff and the Lions get back on track this Sunday against the Giants?
Lions vs Giants Preview
Though New York continues to stack losses, they’re at least staying competitive. Three of their last five defeats have been decided by seven points or fewer.
Last week, they nearly beat the Packers at home with Jameis Winston under center. Green Bay escaped 27-20, but the Giants again showed they won’t go down quietly. That was also their first game after Brian Daboll’s firing, with interim coach Mike Kafka taking over after previously serving as offensive coordinator.
As encouraging as the close calls may be, it’s difficult to apply that same optimism to this matchup against Detroit – a team desperate to reset and build momentum.
The Lions are coming off their fourth loss of the year, a 16-9 setback in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football that cost them control of the NFC North. They’ve now dropped three of their last five. It’s go-time in Detroit, and it starts with a favorable draw against the 2-9 Giants.
New York brings one of the league’s weakest defenses into this matchup: 31st in EPA per play, 28th in success rate, and allowing 27.3 points per game. They rank third-worst in yards per play allowed (5.9) and own the NFL’s worst red zone defense, giving up touchdowns on 73.7 percent of opponent trips.
Despite their recent skid, Detroit remains one of the more respectable defenses in the league, sitting fourth in success rate and sixth in EPA per play allowed. Their offense is also top-10 in those same categories.
So, yes, the line adjustment is warranted and we should expect the Lions to control all areas of this game. However, as opposed to laying double-digits with their spread, I see a better angle with one of their players in the prop market.
Detroit Lions vs New York Giants Prop Bet
It shouldn’t take much for Detroit’s offense to find a rhythm against this struggling Giants defense. Jared Goff should be able to settle in quickly, distribute accurately and keep the chains moving. But more importantly, this feels like a spot where the Lions’ backfield duo of Sonic and Knuckles can finally reestablish their groove.
New York is dead last in rush EPA per play, yards per carry allowed (5.5), and 31st in rush success rate. It’s a dream matchup for Detroit’s ground game.
Naturally, Jahmyr Gibbs will draw plenty of work, but his rushing yards prop is set high and feels fairly priced. Instead, the value lies with David Montgomery and his lower number. The best available line is 48.5 yards, and I’m betting the over.
Even though Gibbs leads the team in carries by a 30-attempt margin, a projected double-digit win script should feed additional touches to Montgomery and put him in great position to clear this number. He’s still averaging 11 carries for 49 yards per game at 4.5 yards per attempt – and this matchup should allow him to exceed those averages with ease.
Best Bet: David Montgomery over 48.5 rushing yards (-115)
NFL Record: 63-47 (+8.15 units)
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