Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
An NFC North battle takes place in the Motor City in Week 9 as the Lions host the Vikings.
Minnesota enters this matchup dealing with a wave of off-field distractions, particularly regarding head coach Kevin O’Connell’s handling of the quarterback situation. How will that turmoil impact the Vikings as 8.5-point underdogs on Sunday? Let’s break it down with my Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings preview and picks.
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Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings NFL Betting Insights
Can Kevin O’Connell get his team focused for this week’s game in Detroit?
Lions vs Vikings Preview
It’s remarkable how quickly things can change in the NFL. The Minnesota Vikings entered the season with a win total of 9.5 and lofty expectations, with first-round pick J.J. McCarthy set to take over as the full-time starter. Fast forward to Week 9, and the Vikings have dropped three of their last four games, while McCarthy has only started twice.
He’ll get another opportunity under center after Carson Wentz – who filled in during McCarthy’s injury – was placed on injured reserve with a shoulder issue sustained during the team’s overseas trip. Wentz fought through the pain for weeks, but now head coach Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings are facing scrutiny for letting him play despite the injury. It also raises questions about their confidence in McCarthy, given that they chose to start an obviously banged-up Wentz instead.
Carson Wentz met with reporters for about 10 minutes. Will have more later, but he said he understood the risks of playing with the shoulder injury he sustained in London, and didn’t think the #Vikings should have taken him out. “This isn’t my first rodeo,” he said. “I’m not an… pic.twitter.com/KawspLm5Hb
— Ben Goessling (@BenGoessling) October 29, 2025
Frankly, I was never a believer in McCarthy, and I was surprised by how many people were. One of my two season win total bets before the year was under 9.5 wins for Minnesota. Expecting a rookie quarterback – who wasn’t particularly prolific in college, had zero NFL experience, and was coming off a major injury – to lead a team to double-digit wins in a tough division always seemed far-fetched. For what it’s worth, McCarthy’s injury hasn’t altered their trajectory. If anything, Wentz gave them a better chance to win when he was healthy.
Wentz, along with Minnesota’s defense, previously gave the Vikings their best chance to win. That is no longer the case, and not solely because of Wentz’s injury, but due to the steady decline of the defense as the season progresses.
For the year, the Vikings have allowed 5.3 yards per play, a figure that has risen to 5.9 over the past three weeks. Through the first five weeks, they ranked first in EPA per play allowed and sixth in success rate. Since Week 5, however, those numbers have plummeted, with Minnesota now sitting 31st in EPA per play and 25th in success rate during that span.
This team no longer has a foundation to rely on, and the situation is likely to worsen against their division rival, the Detroit Lions – a team improving form on both sides of the ball. Detroit is coming off one of its strongest performances of the season, a 24-9 victory over the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. The score could have been far more lopsided had the Lions not turned the ball over and squandered multiple scoring opportunities, yet they still dominated and covered with ease. Following their bye week, Detroit has had additional time to address those issues and prepare for a vulnerable Minnesota squad.
Detroit vs Minnesota Picks
How are the Vikings supposed to keep pace with the Lions’ offense? Detroit ranks seventh in offensive EPA per play and eighth in success rate, while Minnesota sits just 28th and 20th in those respective categories. On the defensive side, the Lions also hold the edge, ranking fourth in EPA per play allowed and sixth in success rate allowed.
In McCarthy’s limited two-game sample this season, the results were underwhelming. The Vikings eked out a fortunate win over the Bears in Week 1, followed by a blowout 22-6 loss at home to the Falcons. Across those contests, McCarthy attempted 41 passes, completing only 24 (58.5%) for 301 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Those numbers are not going to improve against a disciplined Detroit defense coming off its bye week.
It is also worth noting the potential distractions surrounding Minnesota’s quarterback situation. The organization’s handling of the Wentz–McCarthy dynamic has drawn criticism, especially after Wentz was clearly in visible pain during the Thursday night loss to the Chargers. Despite the game being out of reach, head coach Kevin O’Connell chose to keep Wentz in rather than give backup Max Brosmer any reps.
The only conceivable advantage the Vikings may have in this matchup is their familiarity with Dan Campbell, Jared Goff and the Lions. However, Detroit has won five straight meetings against Minnesota. The Vikings’ last victory came on September 25, 2022, and since then, the Lions have averaged a winning margin of 10.2 points per game.
I expect their upcoming meeting to finish around that winning margin as well, which leads me to laying the points with the home team.
Best Bet: Detroit Lions -8.5 (-110) BetOnline
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