NFL Week 14 kicks off with a potentially high-scoring battle in the Motor City, where the Lions host the Cowboys with a game total hovering around 53.5. Detroit is also a three-point favorite as both teams continue fighting for their postseason lives.
Will this matchup live up to its shootout projection? Let’s break it all down with my Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Thursday Night Football predictions.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Thursday Night Football Preview & Picks
Can Jared Goff get the Lions back into the win column on Thursday night?
Lions vs Cowboys Preview
After starting the season 5-2, the Lions have now dropped three of their last five and enter Week 14 at 7-5. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are trending the opposite way, riding a three-game win streak to get to 6-5-1, and sit just one spot behind Detroit in the NFC standings.
Things could get even tougher for the Lions if Amon-Ra St. Brown can’t go on Thursday; he left the Thanksgiving game with an ankle injury, didn’t return, and his absence from Monday’s practice isn’t encouraging on a short week.
Dan Campbell gave an injury update on Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown:
“He’s better,” he said. “I don’t see him practicing today. I know this about him, if he can play, he’ll play.”
— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) December 2, 2025
Detroit still has plenty of playmakers, but the real question is whether they’re being used correctly. Ever since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties in Week 10, the offense has felt out of rhythm. He made the switch right before the game in Washington – a revenge spot against the team that knocked Detroit out of the playoffs last year – and the Lions exploded for 44 points. But that outcome wasn’t surprising. They were facing one of the worst defenses in the league, and the emotional angle only added fuel.
The problem is what has happened after Week 10.
Since Campbell took over as OC, Detroit is 2-2, and the Washington game looks more and more like an aberration. The Lions followed it with just nine points on primetime in Philadelphia, a 34-27 overtime escape against the lowly Giants, and a 31-24 Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay.
From Weeks 11 through 13, Detroit ranks just 18th in both EPA per play and success rate – a steep decline from the top-seven rankings they posted from Weeks 1 through 10.
Campbell’s permanent decision to keep calling plays after the Washington game has backfired. His hubris may potentially hinder this team in the long run.
Now, I fully realize the defense hasn’t helped Detroit much during this stretch. Allowing 27 points to the Giants at home, and then 31 at home to the Packers, is far from ideal. Still, the Lions’ defense sits fifth in success rate allowed this season, though they’ve slipped to 17th in EPA per play. Prior to last week’s embarrassment against Green Bay, Detroit ranked ninth in EPA per play and fourth in success rate from Weeks 1–12.
Things won’t get any easier on Thursday night. The Lions now face one of the league’s hottest offenses – a Cowboys unit that ranks fourth in offensive EPA per play and sixth in success rate.
Dak Prescott has even pushed his way into the MVP conversation. He’s unlikely to win it, but his production makes the debate reasonable: over a 69% completion rate, 3,261 passing yards and a 25–8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
1st in passing yards
1st in yards per game
1st in QBR
2nd in TD passes
5th in Comp%Dak Prescott is an MVP candidate pic.twitter.com/hHHI7gE7qW
— Cowboys Due Diligence (@StevieJPTX) December 1, 2025
Dallas’ offense hasn’t been the problem – it’s been their defense under first-year coordinator Matt Eberflus. The Cowboys rank 31st in defensive success rate and 29th in EPA per play allowed. They’re giving up the second-most points per game (28.5) and the fourth-most yards per game (376.2).
While Campbell’s play-calling could prove detrimental over time, this matchup should still allow Detroit to move the ball efficiently against a bottom-tier Cowboys defense.
All of this has contributed to this matchup carrying the highest total of Week 14, with the market sitting around 53.5. With so many vulnerabilities on both sides, what should we expect Thursday night – and where can we find betting value?
Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Picks
Obviously, we should expect plenty of scoring opportunities in this matchup. That doesn’t mean we should blindly bet the over, though – 53.5 is still a hefty number. At the same time, I don’t feel comfortable taking the under in a game with this much offensive potential. Instead, I’ll stay away from the total entirely and focus on player props.
Let’s begin with Jared Goff.
Since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties, Goff’s game averages look like this:
- 34.5 pass attempts
- 21.8 completions
- 64.3% completion rate
- 277.5 passing yards
Before Week 10 – when Campbell wasn’t calling plays – Goff averaged:
- 30 pass attempts
- 22.1 completions
- 74% completion rate
- 239.4 yards
To be fair, his numbers are weighed down by the Philadelphia game, where he completed just 37.8% of his passes. If we remove that outlier, he’s completed 73% over his four-game span with Campbell as the play caller.
One noticeable change: Goff is throwing more under Campbell. And his upcoming matchup is against a defense that has struggled across the board, even though the Cowboys have shown some improvement lately.
Dallas defense this season:
- 29th Rush EPA | 30th Rush Success Rate
- 28th Dropback EPA | 27th Dropback Success Rate
But during their current three-game win streak:
- 7th Rush EPA | 6th Rush Success Rate
- 19th Dropback EPA | 15th Dropback Success Rate
They’ve shored up the run defense, but they’re still vulnerable through the air. With the Cowboys continuing to struggle against the pass – and with Campbell increasing Goff’s volume – this profiles as a strong spot to target Goff overs.
I’m taking Goff to go over 20.5 completions (-107). Dallas ranks 28th in opponent completion percentage allowed (68%), and seven opposing quarterbacks have gone over this mark against the Cowboys this season, including each of the last four, who have averaged 24.5 completions. I would play this prop up to 21.5.
Additionally, I’m taking Goff to go over 248.5 passing yards (-113). He’s cleared this number in seven of 12 games this year, including each of his past five. Since Campbell took over play calling, Goff’s passing average has jumped from 239.4 to 277.5 yards per game, and now he faces a Dallas defense allowing 10.7 yards per completion (28th) and 251.5 passing yards per game (30th).
The potential absence of Amon-Ra St. Brown is concerning, but Detroit still has enough weapons to get Goff over these numbers, especially against one of the league’s weakest secondaries.
For my third play, I’m actually backing an under – believe it or not.
I’m taking Javonte Williams under 69.5 rushing yards (-113). Williams has been steady this season, but this matchup sets up poorly for a heavy rushing workload. This projects as an offensive battle through the air. Williams will get touches, but not at the volume we’ve seen recently. If Dallas falls behind, they’ll be forced to lean into their strength, which is throwing, to keep up.
Despite their recent defensive issues, Detroit has remained strong against the run. The Lions allow the third-fewest yards per carry (3.9), a number that has dropped to 3.6 over their last three games. They rank seventh in rush EPA and 10th in rush success rate allowed.
Meanwhile, they sit 20th in dropback EPA, meaning Prescott and the Dallas offense will likely attack Detroit’s weakness – their secondary – rather than their strength.
Best Bets:
- Jared Goff Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-107)
- Jared Goff Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-113)
- Javonte Williams Under 69.5 Rush Yards (-113)
Still Didn’t Get Your NFL Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
NFL Betting News NFL Betting News NFL Betting NewsMore NFL News
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings Preview & Predictions (12/14)
Chasing Six | NFL Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Jets vs. Jaguars | NFL Week 15 Breakdown & Best Bets: Jets Fly South
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News