Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns: Two teams coming off impressive wins meet in the Motor City as the Lions host the Browns.
Detroit opened as 10.5-point favorites with a total of 45.5, but early money has shown up on Cleveland, pushing the line down to 8.5. The total has held steady.
Let’s dive into this Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns matchup with my Week 4 predictions and picks.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns NFL Betting Insights
Can Joe Flacco lead the Browns to another underdog win in Week 4?
Underdogs Unite: Both of these teams entered Week 3 with their backs against the wall, and both prevailed.
Cleveland stunned Green Bay 13-10 on a last-second field goal, knocking off what looks like one of the NFL’s top teams. The Browns cashed as more than a touchdown underdog at home.
Meanwhile, Detroit went into Baltimore as 4.5-point dogs and lit up the scoreboard, pulling out a 38-30 win behind an impressive offensive effort.
Noticing Numbers: The Lions offense looks just fine without former coordinator Ben Johnson, dropping 52 and 38 points in their last two outings.
Cleveland, on the other hand, continues to lean on a feisty defense. The Browns rank 7th in defensive success rate and 14th in EPA per play allowed. Their front seven has been especially tough, sitting 4th in rush success rate and 8th in rush EPA allowed.
Jared Goff may find success through the air, but the real question is whether Sonic and Knuckles – a.k.a. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery – can establish a steady ground game against that front.
With Cleveland, there are plenty of question marks – most notably whether this offense can generate enough points to keep pace with Detroit and stay within eight.
The gap in efficiency is glaring: the Lions rank 1st in offensive success rate and 3rd in EPA per play, while the Browns sit 29th and 30th in those categories.
At quarterback, 40-year-old Joe Flacco is completing just 61% of his passes and has more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (2).
Lions vs Browns Picks: Jared Goff’s passing touchdown prop is worth a look. Cleveland has been much better against the run, ranking 4th in success rate and 8th in EPA per play. In the secondary, though, the Browns have allowed two passing touchdowns per game, while tied second for the fewest rushing scores surrendered (0.3).
Outside of that, at the beginning of the week, when the line was -8.5, the obvious play was a teaser. Bringing Detroit down from -8.5 to -2.5 with a six-point move takes you through the key numbers of seven and three, meaning the Lions only need to win by a field goal.
Just before kickoff, the most common spread is -10 in favor of Detroit. However, if you can find -9.5, then I’d suggest laying the points still with the Lions. Cleveland’s miraculous win last week was impressive, but it was more fluke than turning point. That’s not something you can bank on repeating. Detroit is the superior team across the board and should show it here.
Still Didn’t Get Your NFL Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER