Sunday Night Football brings us a matchup between Dak Prescott and his 6-6-1 Dallas Cowboys going against J.J. McCarthy with the 5-8 Minnesota Vikings.
Both teams are fighting to stay relevant in the postseason race, though their margins for error are shrinking as the season winds down. Which team has the better chance to keep its hopes alive? I’ll break it down below in my Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings preview and picks.
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Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings Preview & Predictions
Can J.J. McCarthy lead the Vikings to back-to-back wins?
Cowboys vs Vikings Preview
Minnesota snapped its four-game losing streak in Week 14 by clobbering Washington 31-0. McCarthy delivered the best performance of his young career, throwing three touchdowns while completing 16 of 23 passes for 163 yards. Sure, it came against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, but it was a much-needed confidence boost for the 22-year-old.
The good news is that he could replicate some of that success against Dallas on Sunday night. Much of the Cowboys’ struggles this season stem from how much of a liability their defense has been.
Dallas is allowing the second-most points per game (29.7), the fourth-most yards per game (378.6), and the 28th-most yards per play (6.0). They also rank 30th in red-zone defense, giving up touchdowns on 72% of opponent trips – a number that’s climbed north of 90% over their last three games.
Conversely, Minnesota’s defense has been the primary reason it has remained competitive in several games despite major offensive issues. The Vikings rank eighth in both EPA per play and success rate allowed on defense, while their offense sits 29th in EPA/play and 23rd in success rate.
Dallas’ strength, meanwhile, comes from Prescott and the offense, which ranks fifth in EPA/play and sixth in success rate while averaging 29.3 points per game, third most in the NFL.
Cowboys vs Vikings Predictions
Although the Cowboys prefer to attack through the air, this matchup could push them toward the ground game. Minnesota boasts a top-10 secondary in both EPA and success rate, but the Vikings rank just 20th in rush EPA and 17th in rush success rate.
That sets up well for Javonte Williams, who is in the midst of a strong season. He’s totaled 1,022 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on 4.8 yards per carry. His rushing yards prop is listed around 69.5 – which is well below his season average of 78.6.
Oddsmakers opened Dallas as 6.5-point favorites with a total of 48. Since then, the spread has dipped to -5.5 and the total has ticked down to 47.5. I agree with the market move toward the underdog. As much as I’ve doubted – and still do – McCarthy, matchups against poor defenses like Dallas are where he can play competently enough to keep games close.
I don’t expect this Cowboys game to be as thrilling or high-scoring as some of their recent contests, but Dallas should still be able to escape with a narrow victory and keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
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