Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs
The second of three games on Thanksgiving Day features an exciting battle between Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs head to Jerry World to take on the Cowboys, with kickoff set for 4:30 pm ET on CBS.
Both teams are in desperate need of a win to keep their playoff hopes alive – but which side has the edge? I’ll break it all down with my Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs preview and prop bets.
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Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview & Prop Bet
Dak Prescott looks to claim another Thanksgiving win when they host the Chiefs on Thursday
Cowboys vs Chiefs Preview
Both Dallas and Kansas City are coming off miraculous wins in Week 11. The Cowboys clawed back from a 21-0 deficit at home against their division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, and pulled out a 24-21 victory. Meanwhile at Arrowhead, the Chiefs trailed 20-9 entering the fourth quarter before rallying to beat the Colts 23-20 in overtime.
The Cowboys and Chiefs each needed wins in Week 11 to keep their playoff hopes alive, and that will essentially be the same scenario when they face each other on Thanksgiving.
Both offenses are among the league’s best. Kansas City ranks second in EPA per play and fourth in success rate, while Dallas sits sixth and eighth in those categories. The Cowboys average 29.1 points per game (4th), and the Chiefs are right behind at 25.2 (9th).
Between the QBs, Mahomes, to no ones surprise, gets the nod. He’s fourth in EPA/Play, seventh in success rate, but does fall to 15th in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected).
When comparing quarterbacks, Mahomes – unsurprisingly – still gets the edge. He’s fourth in EPA per play and seventh in success rate, though he dips to 15th in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected). Prescott is fifth in CPOE, but trails Mahomes in the other two metrics, ranking eighth in EPA per play and 11th in success rate.
The biggest discrepancy between these teams comes on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas’ issue all season long has been its inept defense under coordinator Matt Eberflus.
His unit ranks 31st in success rate and 29th in EPA per play allowed. They’re also 30th in defensive red-zone efficiency (69%) and surrender 5.9 yards per play (28th).
Kansas City’s defense, on the other hand, has been fine – and at times the reason they’ve been able to grind out wins. The Chiefs rank 15th in EPA/Play and 17th in success rate allowed, and sit 10th in defensive red zone efficiency (54.8%).
Oddsmakers opened Kansas City as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5. Early money has shown up on Dallas, pushing the line down to -3, while the total has ticked up to 52 at most books.
Coming off a dramatic comeback win and immediately turning around for a short-week road trip to face one of the league’s top offenses is a brutal spot. It’s no surprise bettors jumped on the Cowboys when they could grab the hook over the key number of three.
What frightens me with picking a side in this game are the exact reasons I just laid out. The Chiefs are in a tough short-week road trip after an emotional win. On the other side, it’s hard to justify trusting this atrocious Cowboys defense.
I do give a slight lean toward Mahomes’ squad, though. The one area where Kansas City may ultimately separate themselves is in controlling the tempo. They rank third in time of possession at over 32 minutes per game, and they should be able to play to that average – if not exceed it – against a defense that struggles in general, but especially against the run. That will limit Dallas’ offensive opportunities and ultimately tilt things in Kansas City’s favor.
I won’t be playing them officially, but I did make a wager on a Chiefs player.
Dallas vs Kansas City Prop Bet
While the Chiefs are known for what they can do in the passing game, I think there’s value to be found in their backfield – and no, I’m not targeting Isaiah Pacheco in his potential return. I’m circling the veteran Kareem Hunt.
I’m betting Hunt to score a touchdown at +175 – the best number I’ve seen available. The Chiefs should have plenty of scoring opportunities against one of the league’s weakest defenses. Dallas struggles mightily in the red zone and allows 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game (27th).
Even if Pacheco suits up, Hunt continues to dominate the red-zone work, with 28 red-zone attempts compared to Pacheco’s 12. Hunt has seven rushing touchdowns and one receiving score this season, and he’s found the end zone in four straight games.
He’s also coming off his best performance of the year, rushing 30 times for 104 yards and a touchdown against Indy last Sunday. He should be able to carry that momentum into Thursday against a much weaker run defense.
Best Bet: Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown (+175)
NFL Record: 68-50-1 (+9.87 units)
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