The Cowboys are taking a trip outside of Jerry’s World and headed north, to the Rocky Mountains specifically. We’ve got the Broncos/Cowboys live from frigid Denver, Colorado.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Empower Field; Denver, Colorado
- Date: Sunday, October 26th, 2025
- Kickoff: 4:05 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield (10-7; 2024 – 264.7 YPG | 41 TD | 16 INT)
- Denver Broncos: Bo Nix (10-7; 2024 – 222.1 YPG | 29 TD | 12 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Comeback Kids
Last week we saw one of the most insane comebacks from recent memory. The Broncos entered the 4th quarter down 19 points, without a single point on the board. The game was all but over with the Giants up three possessions and just one quarter of football left, or so we thought.
The Giants missed two extra points during the course of the game, missed a two point conversion and left four total points on the board; that’s important. The Broncos started the fourth quarter with a 2-yard touchdown catch by Troy Franklin and converted on their two point conversion. Less than four minutes later, Theo Johnson ran in a 41-yard touchdown and put the Giants back up 18 points (26-8).
Denver responded with a 13-play, 80-yard touchdown drive, capped off by a Bo Nix touchdown and another successful two point conversion (26-16). Giants get the ball back with five minutes left and Jaxson Dart does the unimaginable, throws an interception. Broncos take four plays, less than a minute and score another touchdown (26-23).
Denver forces a punt, scores another touchdown and go up four points (30-26). Giants somehow score again with just 37 seconds left, but miss the extra point (32-30). Four plays, 51 yards and a game winning field goal later; the Broncos complete the 19 point comeback.
Nix has 11 touchdown passes, three on the ground and has four interceptions. He’s completing 63% of his passes and the Broncos are 5-2, #1 in the AFC West.
The Best Defense is NOT a Good Offense
The Cowboys offense is 2nd in points scored, 2nd in pass yards, 2nd in yards per play, 9th in redzone efficiency and 4th in first downs generated. Despite all the great offensive stats, the Cowboys are 3-3-1 and have yet to win back to back games. It’s the defense, they’ve just been so bad.
The Cowboys defense ranks 30th in points allowed, 24th in opponent redzone efficiency, 32nd in opponent third down conversion rate, 31st in opponent first downs and dead last in pass yards allowed. It doesn’t get any better on the ground, with Dallas allowing 141.3 rush yards per game (30th) and just 29th in opponent yards per play.
The team can’t stop a nose bleed and until they figure that out it’s going to be tough to win games.
Sunday’s Best Bet
George Pickens o57.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | BetOnline
Pickens is second on the Cowboys is target share and has quickly developed quite the chemistry with Dak Prescott. In CeeDee’s four game absence, the young receiver caught 19 balls for 359 yards and scored four touchdowns. Last week with Lamb back on the field, Pickens still saw six targets for 82 yards but failed to get in the endzone.
The Cowboys were in control for nearly the entire game and why the Cowboys only threw the ball 30 times. The decrease in pass plays definitely affected Pickens’ volume but he was able to make the most of his plays, reeling in a 44-yarder just before halftime. Pickens ranks 4th in targets of 20+ yards this year, he’s cleared this line in five of the team’s seven games and he’s the Cowboys top graded receiver against man coverage.
The Broncos run man at a top five rate in the NFL and with Pat Surtain likely spending a majority of snaps shadowing CeeDee, I love this spot for Pickens. Riley Moss is the team’s CB2 and has been good this year, but he’s also allowed two touchdowns and Pickens’ size should prove to be advantageous in this matchup.
Lastly, the Cowboys are passing at a top eight rate in the NFL and enter this game as a 4-point dog. They’ll need to move the ball through the air and Dak’s other option Ferguson sees a significant drop in target rate against man coverage.
Against zone coverage schemes this year, Ferg sees a 31% target rate but that drops to 23% against man. Pickens and Lamb are seeing the lions’ share of targets against man and with Pat Surtain lurking, I’m looking for Dak to turn to his WR2 more often than not.
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