The Commanders travel down south this week, ready to take on Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons. Two young quarterbacks from the same draft class, both looked at as the future of the franchise. Commanders/Falcons live from Mercedez-Benz Stadium; let’s jump right into it. .
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Mercedez-Benz Stadium; Atlanta, Georgia
- Date: Sunday, September 28th, 2025
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels (12-5; 2024 – 209.9 YPG | 25 TD | 9 INT)
- Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix (1-4; 2024 – 155.0 YPG | 3 TD | 3 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Formerly Known as, The Washington Football Team
This is no longer the Washington Football Team, these are the Washington Commanders and the Commanders win football games. Washington’s out a 2-1 start this year with their lone loss being to the Green Bay Packers. Last week without their star quarterback, the Commanders came out and blew the doors off the Raiders.
Marcus Mariota stepped up once again, he threw for 207 yards, one touchdown and added 40 yards on the ground. The vet completed 71% of his passes and is now 3-0 as a starter with the Commanders. Daniels missed just two games last year and the Commanders didn’t miss a beat, wins against both he Panthers and Cowboys. Mariota’s now thrown five total touchdowns across the three starts and should be more than capable of stepping in again if needed.
With three days left till the game, Daniels status remains questionable. In addition to Daniels, the Commanders may be without their star WR1, Terry McLaurin. He suffered a quadricep injury in their Week 3 matchup with the Raiders and could miss matchup with the Falcons. Starting safety Will Harris was also placed on injured reserve after last week and the Commanders defense already ranks dead last in coverage grade.
Dysfunction in the A
The Atlanta Falcons are 1-2 on the year with two divisional losses already. They enter Week 4 off a shutout loss to the Carolina Panthers, a game in which the team failed to even register a single redzone trip. The offense has been bad and it feels like there’s plenty of blame being thrown around.
After Michael Penix’s worst game as professional, the Falcons fired Wide Receiver Coach, Ike Hilliard. Penix threw for 172 yards, completed just 50% of his passes and through two interceptions. Penix hasn’t thrown a touchdown to a wide receiver or tight end this year and his lone passing touchdown was a short checkdown that Bijan Robinson took 50-yards.
The offense has been terrible but I wonder how much of that was on the wide receivers coach. Play calling has been clunky, the offense has been stagnant and despite all the weapons they just can’t score points. All eyes are on Head Coach Raheem Morris now, if this Falcons offense doesn’t get it together, he might be the next one to go.
Sunday’s Best Bets
Darnell Mooney o44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
After everything I just said about the Atlanta Falcons and their dysfunction, we’re going right to their passing attack. Darnell Mooney is in his sixth year in the league and coming off the second best season of his career. He finished with 64 catches, 992 yards and five touchdowns in his first year with the Falcons; taking over as the team’s true WR2.
Mooney’s one of the fastest receivers in the league, he ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at his rookie combine and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Last year Mooney finished with the 4th most catches of 20+ yards, despite seeing the 14th most targets of 20+ yards. He led the league in catch rate on passes of 20+ yards (min. 15 targets), bringing in 64% of these deep targets.
The Commanders have given up six pass plays of 20+ yards through the last two weeks and have been torched by speedy wide receivers. The Commanders rank last in coverage grade this year and this Atlanta team is desperate to turn things around. Mooney saw 11 targets last week, only six of them deemed ‘catchable’. Mooney finished the game with just 44 receiving yards but 125 air yards. That’s 81 total unrealized air yards and he’s seeing an average depth of target of 12.0 yards this year. Look for the Falcons to get him more involved this week.
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