The Commanders and Cowboys both come into this game off one score losses and desperately looking to bounce back. With the total set at 54, it looks like we might be in for a shootout down in Alrington. Let’s get right into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location:AT&T Stadium; Arlington, Texas
- Date: Sunday, October 19th, 2025
- Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels (12-5; 2024 – 209.9 YPG | 25 TD | 9 INT)
- Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott (3-5; 2024 – 247.3 YPG | 11 TD | 8 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Defense Wins Championships
The Dallas Cowboys defense is terrible. They rank 30th in points allowed, 32nd in opponent third down conversion rate, 32nd in first downs allowed, 32nd in pass yards allowed and 29th in rush yards allowed. By almost every single metric, this defense is bad. As bad as the defense has been, the offense has been just as good. They rank 4th in points, 2nd in first downs, 2nd in pass yards and Dak’s playing some of the best football of his career.
Prescott’s averaging 269.5 pass yards per game, he’s thrown 13 touchdowns, three interceptions and has a 71.6% completion rate. Dak’s been without his WR1 for the last three games, but all signs are pointing to CeeDee Lamb returning to the field this week. In his two games prior to the injury, Lamb racked up 16 catches for 222 yards and no touchdowns. He’s going to attract a high volume of targets and now that he’s back on the field the defense will need to be aware.
Lastly, let’s talk about how good George Pickens has been this year for the Cowboys. Pickens is averaging 87.5 receiving yards per game and has six touchdowns; scoring in five straight games. Jake Ferguson leads all tight ends in target rate and Javonte Williams has been one of the most productive running backs early in the year.
The Cowboys are full of weapons on the offensive side, it’s their defense that continues to let them down.
JD in Jerry’s World
The Commanders come into this one off a tough loss to the Chicago Bears. Washington was up two points with six minutes left in the game and possession of the ball at their own 39-yard line. After the Bears manage to sack Jayden Daniels it’s 3rd and 13 with just over four minutes left. Somehow Daniels completes a pass for 13-yards and manages to move the chains.
Washington comes up on another third down, this time just a yard to go. Daniels takes the ball and as he goes to hand it off to Bill in the backfield, the balls slips out of his hand. Fumble, Bears have the ball at their own 44-yard line. Chicago marches down field and kick a game winning field goal as time expires. Commanders fans go home in shambles and just like that the team’s now 3-3 and just a half game ahead of the Cowboys in the NFC East.
Sunday’s Best Bets
George Pickens o62.5 Receiving Yards (-111) | BetOnline
I know I just spent a ton of time talking about Dak Precott and his connection with CeeDee Lamb, but let’s take a second and talk about Pickens. Pickens has 32 receptions, 525 receiving yards and six touchdowns. In two games at home this year, Pickens has 13 catches for 202 yards with three touchdowns.He’s got the third most targets of 20+ yards (12) and Dak’s got a passer rating of 123.3 on these passes.
Pickens play is only amplified by how good Dak’s been this year. Prescott’s the third highest graded quarterback this year and has the 2nd most pass attempts of 20+ yards. He’s thrown 28 passes of 20+ yards and 12 of those have gone directly to Pickens. Pickens also leads the league in endzone targets and has a 13.2 yard average depth of target.
The Commanders rank dead last in coverage grade and struggle to keep receivers in front of them. They’ve given up nine plays of 20 or more yards to opposing wideouts this year and with Marshawn Lattimore out there on the edge, it doesn’t look like that’s going to stop.
Pickens has also thrived against teams running single high coverage shells this year. His speed’s just something you can’t match one on one and now with Lamb back on the field, you can’t help over the top. The Commanders also run single high shells at the 4th highest rate in the NFL and it’s something I’m expecting Pickens to exploit this week.
George Pickens 👀 pic.twitter.com/AkrHH6NzSB
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) October 12, 2025
Luke McCaffrey o24.5 Receiving Yards (-115) | BetOnline
We’re taking a stab at Luke McCaffrey this week. The Cowboys pass defense is dead last in the NFL and the Commanders receiving core is beat up. Washington will once again be without Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown. Deebo Samuel and Zack Ertz both remain questionable for Sunday’s game, Deebo dealing with a heel issue and Ertz with a sore shoulder.
Deebo was dealing with the same issue last week but ended up playing in their matchup with the Bears. He saw five targets, catching four for just 15 yards and you could see he was hampered by his foot. This week with all the question marks on the offense, we’re turning to younger of the McCaffrey brothers.
McCaffrey’s seen limited usage so far this year, only seeing the field for about 38% of the team’s offensive snaps. Despite the limited snaps, McCafrey’s cleared this line in three of his six games and has a touchdown in three of his last four. We’ve only got a small sample size, but when McCaffrey is on the field he’s been great.
He’s graded as the #22 wideout this year, ranking 5th in deep target rate (40%), 4th in yards per route run (2.84) and 1st in yards per reception (22.1). Luke’s seeing an average depth of target of 18.6 yards (5th) and is averaging 7.6 yards after the catch per reception (6th). In a game where the total’s set at 54, I’m expecting a few big plays and that’s exactly what Luke does best.
this CATCH 🤯@mccaffrey_luke | #RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/crvdWkyUkT
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 5, 2025
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