The Commanders are in Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Primetime Patty versus Monday Night Mariota; I can’t wait.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, Missouri
- Date: Monday, October 27th, 2025
- Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Washington Commanders: Marcus Mariota (2-0; 2024 – 183.0 YPG | 4 TD | 0 INT)
- Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (15-1; 2024 – 245.5 YPG | 26 TD | 11 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Two In, One Out
The Washington Commanders come into this week with a 3-4 record, off back to back losses and the loss of their franchise QB. Luckily Daniels avoided serious injury and should be back in just a couple weeks but just as he’s forced to the bench, both Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin will make their return to the field.
Injuries have plagued the Commanders season; McLaurin’s missed four the team’s games this year, Austin Ekeler’s out for the year and now with Daniels missing his third game of the season. Defensively it doesn’t get better, the Commanders will be without starting DE(s) Dorance Armstrong and Deatrich Wise. Their starting DT Daron Payne missed the entire week of practice with a toe injury and remains a game time decision.
Washington ranks 26th in opposing pass yards allowed and it’s because of their bad secondary. The Commanders rank 29th in coverage grade this year and have given up 12 passing touchdowns on the year. This week they’ll face Patrick Mahomes on Primetime, no easy task for any defense.
With their starting QB on the shelf, it’s easy to count out the Commanders but Mariota’s been good with Washington. Since last season, Mariota’s started four games for the Commanders; he’s got a 3-1 record and he’s thrown seven touchdowns to two interceptions.
Mariota’s also played in three Monday night games of his own, going 2-1 and throwing five touchdowns in the process. Mariota threw for 300+ yards in two of the three games, averaging 283.0 yards through the air with a 78.6% completion rate. This week he gets both Deebo & Terry back on the field alongside a healthy offensive line.
Primetime Patty
Patrick Mahomes loves Monday Nights. On Monday Night Football, Mahomes has 3,729 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 9 interceptions and three touchdowns on the ground. He’s got a career passer rating of 98.6 in these games a 9-4 record in his career. The problem is, three of those four losses have come over his last five Monday night games.
Prior to 2023, Mahomes was 8-1 on Monday Night Football and basically unbeatable. The Chiefs have shown some chinks in their armour this year and this week on Primetime it feels like the perfect time to send out a little reminder. Kansas City has now won back to back games and last week’s blowout win over the Raiders was a statement.
The Chiefs scored 31 points, held the Raiders to ZERO and an NFL record low 30 offensive plays. Kansas City’s defense ranks among the elite this year. They’ve got a top two coverage grade, rank 4th in yards allowed, 3rd in points allowed and 3rd in pass yards allowed. They’ve allowed just one QB to throw for 225 or more yards and that was Justin Herbert in Week 1.
The defense have given up two or more passing touchdowns just twice this year, once in Week 1 and then once again against Jared Goff and the Lions two weeks ago. They held the Lions to just 17 points, 297 total yards of offense and beat them by two possessions.
Lastly, Kansas City has also won three straight games at Arrowhead; all by two or more possessions.
Monday Night’s Best Bets
Xavier Worthy o49.5 Receiving Yards (+105) | BetOnline
Last week with all the hype surrounding Rashee Rice, we rode the wagon. He came through on the touchdown but caught seven passes for just 42 yards. Rice was utilized exactly as expected, close to the line of scrimmage where he can use his speed to make defenders miss and get out in space.
In just one game, Rice saw an average depth of target of 2.0 yards and I don’t expect it to stay that low but in his first two years Rice’s average depth of target hasn’t gone above 5.5 yards. In both seasons he’s been in the NFL he hasn’t been one of the Chiefs deep threats, but someone they keep close to the line of scrimmage and utilize heavily in the redzone.
That’s why against this Washington Commanders defense we’re going with Xavier Worthy. In his first game with Rice back on the field, Worthy took a season high 50% of his snaps from the slot. The Commanders rank 2nd last in production allowed to slot receivers and have allowed 4+ receptions to the opposition’s WR2 in five of their seven games this year.
In addition to their poor secondary, the Commanders run a ton of man and single high coverage shells. Mahomes has the 9th highest grade against these coverage schemes and these present the perfect opportunity to air it out deep. The Commanders have allowed a pass of 25+ yards in every game this year and Worthy will become this team’s go to option deep down field.
Last week Worthy lead all wide receivers in snap share despite the blowout and this week I’m expecting just a few more shots deep for the kid.
Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown (+170)
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