The Texans head to Indianapolis this week, fresh off their third straight win. The Colts have lost two of their last three games and now look to get back into the win column this week. Big divisional matchup in the AFC South this week, let’s jump right into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium; Indianapolis, Indiana
- Date: Sunday, November 30th, 2025
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud (10-7; 2024 – 219.2 YPG | 20 TD | 12 INT)
- Indianapolis Colts: Daniel Jones (2-8; 2024 – 207.0 YPG | 8 TD | 7 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Texan Two-Step
The Houston Texans have won three straight games and it’s all because of this insane defense. Led by Will Anderson Jr. and Dannielle Hunter, the Texans defense ranks 2nd in points allowed, 3rd in pass yards allowed, 5th in rush yards allowed and 2nd in yards per play. The team ranks 6th in sacks and the combination of Anderson/Hunter have accounted for over 100 QB pressures this year, combined.
Last week the Texans hosted the Buffalo Bills and managed to get to Josh Allen for eight times for a total loss of 70 yards. These are the kind of back breaking plays the Texans defense continues to make and it’s why this team’s now back in the hunt for the playoffs.
CJ Stroud is back this week after missing the Texans last three games and it’ll be interesting to see how this goes after Davis Mills stepped in and went 3-0 in his stead. Nico Collins has been great this year and his numbers really exploded with Mills under center. Collins saw 28 targets in the three games with Mills, catching 19 for 283 yards and one touchdown.
With Stroud back under center, I’m hoping we don’t see Nico’s production drop off too much; especially because the offensive line hasn’t really gotten any better.
Damn, Daniel
The Colts have been absolutely rolling this year and despite losing two of their last three games, they still sit atop the AFC South. Indianapolis has the #1 offense in the NFL, averaging 31.0 points per game, 6.3 yards per play (1st) and 384.0 total yards of offense per game (2nd). Lead by Daniel Jones, the Colts have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL.
It was a shock when early this week we saw Daniel Jones pop up on the injury report with a ‘fractured fibula’ and even bigger shock when we found out he played through it in Week 12. Jones threw for 181 yards and two touchdowns against a tough Kansas City defense, but still went home with their third loss of the year.
Last week Daniel Jones was kept clean for the entire game, still had 3 carries for 16 yards and averaged 5.3 yards per carry. This week he faces the scariest combination of defensive ends in the NFL and it’s likely he’s doing it with severely hindered mobility.
The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in football and the Texans have one of the best defensive lines in football. This game’s shaping up to be a battle in the trenches and I couldn’t be more excited.
Sunday’s Best Bet
Tyler Warren o4.5 Receptions (-119) | BetOnline
The Houston Texans defense is tough to crack, whether through the air or on the ground. The Texans have leaned heavily on zone schemes this year, ranking 7th in zone rate and top two in ‘yards allowed per coverage target’ (6.4), ‘yards allowed per coverage snap (5.0) and ‘1st down plus touchdown rate allowed’ (28.0%). Their defensive line makes it incredibly tough on play development and that’s partly why we’re looking to Warren this week.
Warren leads the Colts in target rate against zone coverage and is the team’s best graded pass catcher against zone. The rookie TE ranks 8th among all pass catchers in yards per route run against zone and 2nd in yards after the catch against zone; despite seeing an average depth of target of just 5.5 yards.
Warren’s ability to play out in the slot should present some problems for Houston. The Texans pass defense has been elite this year but almost 44% of production they’ve allowed to pass catchers has out of the slot. Warren’s taking just under 45% of his snaps from the slot and is running a route on 88% of passing downs.
It’s his first time playing Houston but this being a divisional matchup, I’m expecting just a little bit more.
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