Make that seven straight losses for the worst team in the NFL. The Tennessee Titans fell to 1-11 after an embarrassing 25-3 outing against Jacksonville last Sunday. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward now leads the Titans to Cleveland, where he’ll face another first-year starter in Shedeur Sanders, who’s trying to notch his second win in his third start for the Browns.
Conditions won’t be friendly. Cleveland is expecting 10–13 MPH winds with a chance of snow, and this matchup owns the lowest total on the Week 14 slate at just 34 points. Bettors have shown early support for the Browns, pushing them up from -3.5 to -4.
But does any NFL game truly warrant a total that low? And do Shedeur Sanders and this Browns team deserve to be favored at all – let alone over the key number of -3? I’ll dig into both sides of that debate and share my analysis in my Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans predictions and picks.
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Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans Predictions & Prop Bet
Can Cam Ward outshine fellow rookie Shedeur Sanders in their Week 14 matchup?
Browns vs Titans Predictions
Usually when rookie quarterbacks square off, it’s an intriguing battle to see which first-round pick outshines the other. Well, this matchup is a bit unique. The number one overall pick, Cam Ward, will be on the field – but both he and the Titans have been incredibly underwhelming, to put it politely.
Across the field is Shedeur Sanders, a fifth-round pick who didn’t even make his first appearance until Week 11 after fellow rookie Dillon Gabriel went down. Sanders struggled in relief, completing just four of 16 passes for 47 yards with a pick in a 23-16 loss to the Ravens.
Still, the Browns named him the starter the following week – and in just two starts, Sanders already has as many wins as Ward has in 12 tries. In those two games, he’s completed 27 of 45 throws (60%) for 358 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
As for Ward, through 12 games he’s completing 59.7% of his throws (246-of-412) for 2,351 yards with a 7–6 TD/INT ratio. Among 32 qualified quarterbacks, he ranks dead last in EPA/play, second-to-last in success rate and 29th in CPOE.
We don’t have the same season-long sample for Sanders, so let’s narrow it down to the past two weeks. Among 36 qualified quarterbacks in that span, Ward and Sanders stack up like this:
EPA/Play: Ward 26th | Sanders 27th
Success rate: Ward 31st | Sanders 33rd
CPOE: Ward 18th | Sanders 23rd
Far from appealing, but Ward does get the slight nod.
Where Ward is at a disadvantage is in just about every other facet of the matchup. The Browns have better skill-position players, a better head coach and one of the top defenses in the league.
Cleveland surrenders the second-fewest yards per game (271.3) and third-fewest passing yards per game (169.9). They also rank second in success rate, fourth in EPA/Play and give up the fewest yards per rush attempt in the league (3.7) while ranking first in rush success rate.
How will a Titans offense that sits 31st in both EPA/Play and success rate stack up against this defense? Probably poorly; hence why the total is incredibly low. Having to travel and play in rough conditions won’t help their scoring abilities either.
On the flip side, how will Cleveland fare against Tennessee’s defense? It’s a group allowing 27.3 points per game (29th), sitting 28th in EPA/Play, 27th in yards per play (5.7) and 20th in success rate.
The Titans are allowing 4.6 yards per carry (25th) but have improved that to 3.7 over their past three games. They also now rank ninth in rush success rate allowed.
Where they’ve specifically struggled is against the pass. The Titans give up 10.6 yards per completion (24th), which has risen to 11.7 over their last three games. They’re also 30th in dropback EPA and 26th in dropback success rate.
As bad as Tennessee is, out of principle I can’t bring myself to lay more than three points with Shedeur Sanders and the Cleveland Browns. From an eye-test standpoint, I don’t think he’s been quite as brutal as the metrics make him look. He’s given Cleveland a little spark, but he’s still far from a starting-caliber quarterback in this league. He has, however, been better than Dillon Gabriel.
It reminds me of how I felt about Tyler Shough and the Saints a couple weeks ago when they were laying points against the Falcons. I couldn’t believe that in any scenario, Tyler Shough would be favored in an NFL game. I faded him, and the Falcons won outright 24-10.
This situation is different, though. The Falcons are far better than the Titans, and the Browns defense is miles better than what New Orleans was working with. So while I still expect Cleveland to win this game, I also think Tennessee can hang around. This is shaping up to be a gross, ugly offensive performance from both sides – the type of game that might set football back 40 years. On paper, the under makes sense.
But of course, with all that being said, I’ll be betting an over. Because naturally, that’s what one should do in a game with a total this low…right?
Browns vs Titans Prop Bet
Well, not typically. But I do see value in one player’s over.
Through his two starts, Sanders has clearly favored one weapon more than the rest: Harold Fannin Jr. The rookie tight end out of Bowling Green has been targeted 11 times over the past two weeks, hauling in seven receptions for 83 yards and a score. On the season, he’s averaging 4.3 catches on 6.2 targets for 42 receiving yards per game.
Fannin now faces a Titans defense that’s allowing opposing tight ends an average of five receptions for 47 yards per contest. His receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 with -111 juice, a number he’s cleared in eight of 12 games this season, including both with Sanders under center.
I’m expecting Fannin to find plenty of open space against a vulnerable Tennessee secondary and exceed this mark once again.
Best Bet: Harold Fannin Jr. Over 33.5 Receiving yards (-111)
NFL Record: 72-58-1 (+5.06 units)
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