Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins Preview & Prop Bets (10/19): Is it Gabriel’s Time to Shine?

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Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins

Can I interest you in a Week 7 matchup between a pair of 1-5 teams? It might be a tough sell, but when two sloppy teams meet, that usually means plenty of betting opportunities.

That’s exactly what we get this Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET, when the Dolphins head to Cleveland to take on the Browns.

Rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel is fighting to keep his starting job, with fellow rookie Shedeur Sanders waiting patiently for his shot. Meanwhile, Dolphins Head Coach Mike McDaniel is also fighting for his future with his job on the line. 

So how do these teams stack up against each other  and where can we find value in the prop market? Let’s dive into my Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins preview and props.

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Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns NFL Betting Insights

Dillon Gabriel

Can Dillon Gabriel get his first career win against the Dolphins on Sunday?

Browns vs Dolphins Preview

When this game opened back in May, the Dolphins were 1.5-point favorites, and the total was set around 43.5. Fast forward to Week 7, and we’re looking at a discombobulated Miami squad now facing rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel – and the line has flipped. The Browns are currently 2.5-point favorites, and the total has dropped significantly to 37.5.

One of the reasons we’ve seen the total move so much, outside of how poor these teams have played, has to do with the weather forecast:

Wind often has the biggest impact on how a game is played, and given how ferocious it appears to be, it should greatly affect this one.

In regards to the line movement on the spread –  look no further than the atrocities taking place on the Miami defense. The Dolphins rank 31st in both EPA per play and success rate allowed – and losing star wide receiver Tyreek Hill certainly doesn’t help matters.

On the other side, Cleveland’s defense has been the lone bright spot in an otherwise miserable season. The Browns rank 5th in success rate allowed and 10th in EPA per play.

Rookie QB Dillon Gabriel was thrown into the fire in Week 5 when the Browns traveled overseas to face the Vikings. It was a brutal situation for a first career start – an international venue against one of the league’s top defenses. Still, Gabriel held his own, relatively speaking, completing 19 of 33 passes for 190 yards, with two touchdowns and no turnovers. His underlying metrics weren’t great, but he kept Cleveland in position to win.

Things got worse in Week 6 at Pittsburgh. Gabriel completed just 55.8% of his passes (29-of-52) for 221 yards, averaging only 4.3 yards per completion. He didn’t score, but he also avoided turning the ball over.

Fortunately, things get a bit easier this week. Miami boasts one of the worst secondaries in the league. The Dolphins are allowing opponents to complete 75% of their passes – dead last in the NFL. They also rank last in dropback success rate and 31st in dropback EPA allowed.

If there’s ever a time for Gabriel to prove he belongs, this is it. However, given the weather forecast this still may make things difficult for the southpaw.

The Dolphins’ offense doesn’t have nearly as favorable a matchup – particularly when it comes to the ground game. De’Von Achane has been the lone bright spot, averaging an impressive 5.1 yards per carry while racking up three rushing and three receiving touchdowns so far. He’s coming off his best performance of the season, rushing 16 times for 128 yards and two scores last week against the Chargers.

This week, however, he faces a much tougher test: a Browns front seven that ranks 2nd in rush EPA per play and 3rd in rush success rate allowed. We’ll see if Achane can work his magic once again.

Given the stark contrast between these two defenses, it’s easy to understand why the line has swung toward the home team. While Dillon Gabriel hasn’t proven to be a reliable passer, he may not need to be in this environment. The brutal weather conditions will likely force both teams to rely heavily on the ground game, and the matchup of Quinshon Judkins vs. the Miami Dolphins’ run defense is far more favorable than De’Von Achane facing the Cleveland Browns’ formidable front.

On top of that, a warm-weather team traveling to the Midwest in these conditions? This setting clearly favors the Browns. That’s why I’m backing their moneyline at -140. I’m staying away from the spread with these high winds increasing the likelihood of missed kicks and unpredictable plays. I just want to count on them winning outright, without needing to cover a number.

Cleveland vs Dolphins Prop Bets

Speaking of Gabriel, let’s start with him – and specifically the connection he’s trying to build with wide receiver Jerry Jeudy.

In Gabriel’s two starts, he’s targeted Jeudy 18 times. The results so far have been underwhelming: just two receptions on five targets for 15 yards against Minnesota, followed by five catches on 13 targets for 43 yards last week against Pittsburgh.

While those numbers are disappointing, there are some encouraging signs. First, the volume: Jeudy is clearly a focal point of the passing game. Second, the matchup: this week he faces one of the league’s worst secondaries. And finally, there’s a clear buy-low opportunity on Jeudy’s receiving yards prop – currently sitting at just 37.5. Part of the reason why it’s low is not only because of the lack of production we’ve seen, but, once again, due to the harsh weather conditions.

Even with that, I’m still betting Jerry Jeudy to go over 37.5 receiving yards at -112. Remember, Miami is allowing opponents to complete 75% of their passes – dead last in the league. They also rank last in dropback success rate and 31st in dropback EPA allowed. So, regardless of the weather, the Browns should be able to scheme plenty of short passes to their top target, giving Jeudy a strong opportunity to eclipse this mark.

The other angle I’m targeting involves another Browns player — rookie running back Quinshon Judkins. Most bettors are likely backing his overs, and for good reason. Miami is allowing 5.6 yards per carry, ranking 30th in rush EPA and 22nd in rush success rate.

If you’re Coach Kevin Stefanski, you want to ease the pressure on your rookie quarterback by establishing a consistent ground game to open up the passing attack. I expect Judkins to rush for around 85+ yards, but that market doesn’t offer much value since the odds have been adjusted accordingly.

Where I do see value is on his anytime touchdown prop, currently priced at -120. While not ideal to lay juice on an anytime TD, this should be closer to -140 or higher given the matchup and his expected workload.

Miami’s run defense is nearly as vulnerable as their secondary, and the Browns are likely to get multiple red zone trips. In those situations, it makes sense to trust their reliable back near the goal line rather than risk the less consistent arm of their rookie QB.

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