Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears Preview & Picks (11/2): Don’t Abandon the Bears

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears

Two of the league’s most vulnerable defenses meet Sunday at 1 pm ET at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio, where the 3–5 Bengals host the 4–3 Bears. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses. The question is which one can correct its mistakes and get back on track?

I’ll tell you with my Cincinnati Bengals vs. Chicago Bears preview and picks.

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears NFL Betting Insights

Take an extended look at this upcoming NFL Week 9 matchup, with our Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears Preview & Picks.

Can Joe Flacco deliver another 30-plus point performance for the Bengals on Sunday?

Bengals vs Bears Preview

Can everyone take a step back and take a deep breath on Caleb Williams and this Bears team? Every time Chicago loses a game, it feels like the same overreaction cycle begins again. Fans and NFL viewers alike seem unwilling to exercise any patience with Williams’ development. Many in Chicago are acting like the sky is falling because the Bears lost in Baltimore last week. There are certainly valid criticisms, but nothing that should trigger panic.

Before the season, that Week 8 trip to Baltimore was widely viewed as a scheduled loss. Early in the week, the expectation was that Lamar Jackson would return from the Ravens’ bye in a desperate spot to save their postseason chances. When reports shifted late that Jackson would sit and Tyler Huntley would start, expectations flipped. For many teams, a last-minute QB switch creates uncertainty. In this case, that excuse does not apply. Huntley and Jackson are similar dual-threat quarterbacks, which is exactly why Huntley is the backup. Baltimore’s offensive structure does not change much and allows a seamless transition.

The more significant factor may have been psychological. The Bears entered the week as six to six-and-a-half point underdogs with little external pressure. The mindset likely centered on competing hard and treating the test as a measuring stick against a top-tier opponent. Once Jackson was ruled out, that shifted to “there is no excuse not to win.” That change in expectation clearly did not serve them well, especially combined with their red-zone failures.

Caleb Williams is fine. Baltimore played its best defensive game of the season in a desperate spot. Chicago’s receivers dropped multiple key passes and Ben Johnson’s playcalling was not at its best and didn’t offer Williams a chance at any deep balls. His interception late in the fourth quarter with their backs against their own end zones was brutal, but these are all correctable mistakes.

The Bears have a long-term franchise quarterback, and he is going through the natural growing pains. This is his third coach in a span of a year-and-a-half – everybody needs to calm down. 

He still graded out fairly well among all quarterbacks in Week 8. Williams finished 10th in both CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) and air yards per attempt (8.9), along with 15th in EPA per play and 16th in success rate. It was not a pretty performance, but the loss and the negative perception currently surrounding him are not truly indicative of what should be expected going forward.

If there is one positive to take from the collective overreaction, it is that the market is giving us a discount on the Bears in their upcoming matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Chicago failed to take advantage of opportunities against Baltimore, a defense that has graded near the bottom of the league. This matchup presents a quality chance to correct those offensive miscues against an even weaker Cincinnati unit. The Bengals rank 31st in both EPA per play and defensive success rate. Their collapse last Sunday against the Jets highlighted those issues further. Cincinnati led by 14 in the fourth quarter, only to allow 15 unanswered points to a Jets offense led by Justin Fields, who was not even supposed to start heading into last Sunday.

Both teams now sit tied for the most yards per play allowed at 6.2. The difference is that Chicago has shown improvement, giving up just 5.4 yards per play over its last three contests. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has regressed significantly, surrendering 7.1 yards per play over its last three games. The Bengals also own the second-worst red-zone defense in football, allowing touchdowns on 70.3 percent of opponent trips inside the 20.

A glass-half-full view of this Bengals team is that their offense has finally become functional with 40-year-old Joe Flacco under center. Across two starts, he has completed 52 of 81 passes (64 percent) for 565 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Cincinnati put up 33 points in a win over the Steelers in his debut, followed by 38 last Sunday against the Jets. Before Flacco arrived, the Bengals had not scored more than 18 points in a game all season.

Cincinnati vs Chicago Picks

Given the defensive shortcomings on both sides and the sudden jump in Cincinnati’s offensive output, it is no surprise this total sits as high as 52.5.

Chicago’s defense has shown progress, though. A healthier secondary would make a considerable difference, as evidenced during the Bears’ four-game win streak when they forced 15 turnovers. Chicago currently leads the league in turnover differential at +10, which illustrates their ability to create game-changing plays.

Outside of their occasional offensive ineffectiveness, their lack of discipline has created even more frustration.

Now, I am not one to blame officiating because that is a weak excuse, but it is fair to acknowledge that the Bears have been hurt by several critical calls while also committing avoidable mistakes of their own. The inconsistency is both notable and frustrating. As the season progresses, the expectation remains that this group will grow more composed and efficient under Ben Johnson.

The spread has also received plenty of attention, as the Bears have moved from -1.5 favorites to -2.5. The betting market is telling us not to abandon ship on Chicago, and I’m listening very closely.

Last week was a setback. So be it. But a matchup with one of the league’s most disorganized franchises presents an ideal opportunity to bounce back. 

Back the Bears in a week where much of the public is likely to fade them after Caleb Williams’ performance in Baltimore.

Best Bet: Bears ML (-137)

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