The Chiefs are in Jacksonville this week, ready to take on Trevor Lawrence and the new look Jaguars. Both teams are looking for their third win in a row, while the Jaguars look to remain undefeated at home.
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Game Information
Trevor Lawrence looks to silence the haters this season
Matchup Information
- Location: EverBank Stadium; Jacksonville, Florida
- Date: Monday, October 6th, 2025
- Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (15-1; 2024 – 245.5 YPG | 26 TD | 11 INT)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence (2-8; 2024 – 204.5 YPG | 11 TD | 7 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Most Valuable Player
Patrick Mahomes is the life blood of the Kansas City Chiefs. Last week against the Baltimore Ravens, Mahomes threw for 270 yards, four touchdowns and no turnovers. Not only is Mahomes averaging 234.8 yards per game through the air, but he’s the team’s leading rusher this year. Pat’s scrambled for 130 yards in three games, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 32.5 yards per game. He’s got seven touchdowns through the air and leads the team in rushing touchdowns with two.
Defensively, this Chiefs team has looked great. Kansas City ranks 5th in points allowed, 9th in defensive redzone efficiency, 7th in pass yards allowed and 6th in opponent third down conversion rate. The Jaguars have struggled in most of these spots; 24th in redzone efficiency, 25th in third down conversion rate, and 17th in pass yards allowed.
Last week we saw the return of Xavier Worthy. The second year wide receiver brought in five of his eight targets for 83 yards, got two carries and scampered for 38 yards on the ground. He lead the team in receiving yards and rushing yards in his first game back. Worthy also saw seven total touches despite playing just 59% of the team’s offensive snaps. He’s back and he’s an absolute weapon.
Fired Up in Florida
The Jaguars are 3-1 and coming home after a HUGE win on the west coast, beating a 49ers team that now leads the NFC West. Head Coach Liam Coen has this team fired up and you can see it starts at the top. The Jaguars offense has been decent, mainly due to the team’s ability to run the ball.
The team ranks 17th in pass yards per game but 4th in rush yards per game. Trevor Etienne ranks #1 amongs qualified running backs in yards per carry (6.0) and ranks 4th in yards after contact. The offensive line has held up well, ranking in the top five for both pass blocking and run blocking this year. Lawrence has been sacked just three times this year and ranks last in pass attempts under pressure this year.
Despite the clean pocket, Lawrence is completing just 58.3% of his passes, averaging 211.3 yards per game and has five touchdowns to four interceptions. It’s one of the toughest stretches we’ve seen Lawrence go through and despite all of that, the Jaguars are looking to go 4-1 tonight and it’s all because of this defense.
The Jaguars rank 4th in points allowed, 4th in defensive redzone efficiency, 3rd in rush yards allowed and have the most forced turnovers in the NFL. The Jaguars have 13 total takeaways this year, nine interceptions and four forced fumbles.
Jourdan Lewis has been phenomenal in his first year with the team. Lewis has 13 tackles, two interceptions and ranks in the top six of all qualified cornerbacks this year in defensive grade. With a majority of his snaps coming in the slot, it’s no surprise the Jaguars are giving up 88% of receiver production to receivers lined up out wide.
Monday Night’s Best Bets
Xavier Worthy o59.5 Receiving Yards | BetOnline
Worthy was out there for 59% of the team’s offensive snaps in his first week back and that was in a blowout win. Worthy lead the team in targets with eight, catching five for 83 yards and adding 38 yards on the ground. The Chiefs made a point to get the young receiver involved and it feels like a theme of things to come.
This week the Chiefs line up with one of the toughest secondaries in football, a Jaguars team that institutes zone coverages at the 3rd highest rate. Worthy is a 5’11 wide receiver that THRIVES against zone coverages. This year, despite the low sample size; Worthy leads the Chiefs in target rate against zone and it was something we saw last year too.
Worthy finished his rookie year with 638 yards on 59 catches with nine total touchdowns and averaged 37.5 yards per game. Last year against zone coverages, Worthy finished with: 46 catches (75% catch rate), 539 yards, six touchdowns and 330 yards after the catch. His 330 YAC against zone coverages ranked 8th among all wide receivers and its really no surprise.
Worthy recorded the fastest 40-yard dash time in NFL Combine history before being drafted by the Chiefs and you can see his speed on full display every week. Last year Worthy had four touchdowns on passes of 20+ yards, lead the Chiefs in catches of 20+ yards and all six of his receiving touchdowns came against zone coverage schemes. After how he was utilized last week, I’m expecting a big game from Xavier on Primetime.
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