Big matchup this week in the AFC West this week with the Kansas City Chiefs headed to Denver to take on the Bo Nix and the Broncos. Denver leads the division at 8-2, even though some of their wins have been anything but pretty. Let’s jump right into this divisional matchup.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Empower Field; Denver, Colorado
- Date: Sunday, November 16th, 2025
- Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (15-1; 2024 – 245.5 YPG | 26 TD | 11 INT)
- Denver Broncos: Bo Nix (10-7; 2024 – 222.1 YPG | 29 TD | 12 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Broncos Country, Let’s Ride
The Broncos sit atop the AFC West with an 8-2 record and despite some UGLY wins, they’re winners nonetheless. Denver’s now won seven straight games, six of the wins coming by less than a touchdown. The Broncos rank 17th in points scored this year, 21st in first downs, 20th in third down conversion rate and 18th in pass yards. The offense has struggled but they consistently find a way to win games.
Bo Nix is in his second year, averaging 212.6 pass yards per game, completing 60.9% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He’s helped the team win 8 of their first 10 games and looks like he could lead the Broncos to their first division title since 2015.
Defensively the team’s been one of the best. Denver ranks 3rd in points allowed, 6th in opponent pass yards, 4th in opponent rush yards, 1st in opponent yards per play and 1st in opponent redzone efficiency. The defense is averaging 4.6 sacks per game (1st) and it’s a the main reason they’ve held teams to just 17.3 points per game.
The Chiefs are Back…Maybe?
Kansas City is 5-4 this year, 2nd in their division and have looked like two completely different teams at times this year. The Chiefs rank 9th in points scored, averaging 26.1 points per game this year and converting on 70.3% of their redzone opportunities (3rd). Kansas City ranks 5th in pass yards per game, 4th in first downs, and 9th in yards per play.
The offense has done a great job of taking care of the ball, ranking 2nd with just five total giveaways this year. Patrick Mahomes is averaging 261.0 pass yards per game, completing 64.6% of his passes with 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Mahomes has played a majority of the year without his top target, Rashee Rice, and now with him back in the lineup we’ve seen the offense look that much better.
In three games with Rice in the lineup, the Chiefs are averaging 26.7 points per game and have scored 28 or more points in two of the three games. Their most recent game against the Bills was one of their worst, the team scored just 21 points and just 8 in the second half.
The Chiefs now come into this week’s matchup off their bye week and looking to get back into the win column. Look for Mahomes and company to come out aggressive, looking to make a statement in this week’s game.
Sunday’s Best Bets
Rashee Rice o76.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | BetOnline
Rashee Rice is seeing a 27.9% target share and he’s been Mahomes favorite target to go to. Rice has 26 targets through three games this year, recording 20 receptions for 215 yards and four total touchdowns. He leads the Chiefs by a wide margin in target share and has seen a 28.3% first read target share in the three games since he’s returned.
Last year, Rice was seeing a 31.3% first read target share and clearly became the Chiefs’ #1 option. This year it’s more of the same. He’s cleared this line in two of his three games and leads the team in receiving yards since returning.
The Broncos will be without the reining Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain. That should leave them vulnerable in the secondary, especially to a speedster like Rice. He’s has a done a ton of his damage right at the line of scrimmage and with this Denver pass rush, I’m expecting Mahomes to lean on the short game just a little bit more.
WR highest passer rating when targeted this season (min. 20 targets):
1. Kayshon Boutte (142.1)
2. Rashee Rice (139.1)
3. Demario Douglas (135.1)
4. Mack Hollins (135) pic.twitter.com/Opyidv60VC— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 4, 2025
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