HUGE matchup in the AFC this week. Two juggernauts of the NFL go head to head this week at Highmark Stadium. The Buffalo Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs in a potential preview of this year’s AFC Championship Game; let’s jump right into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Highmark Stadium; Orchard Park, New York
- Date: Sunday, November 2nd, 2025
- Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (15-1; 2024 – 245.5 YPG | 26 TD | 11 INT)
- Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (13-4; 2024 – 219.5 YPG | 28 TD | 6 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
The Bills of Buffalo
After back to back losses for Buffalo, the Bills went into Carolina and sent out a bit of a reminder. Buffalo won the game 40-9 and just ran all over the Carolina defense. The Bills finished with 245 yards on the ground, four rushing touchdowns and averaged 7.0 yards per carry as a team.
Buffalo’s now 5-2 on the year, one game back of the Patriots for the lead in their division and have the 4th best offense in football (29.6 PPG). They’ve got the #1 rushing offense, averaging 164.4 yards per game and rank 2nd in yards per play (6.1). The offense ranks 3rd in first downs and top 10 in third down conversion rates. They put up a ton of points and they are incredibly hard to get off the field.
Defensively, the Bills could be better. They rank 9th in points allowed but it’s their inability to stop the run that’s burned them. Buffalo ranks 31st in rush yards allowed, allowing 150.3 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry (31st). This week will be a litmus test for both teams and I’m expecting Buffalo to bring the intensity this week on their home field.
The Chiefs are Back
The Chiefs lost back to back games to start the year and everyone was started to smash the panic button. Since then, the Chiefs have gone 5-1; with all five wins being by two or more possessions. Mahomes is averaging 262.4 yards per game and he’s thrown 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions. He’s completing 67% of his passes and no one’s happier than he is about the return of Rashee Rice.
In two games with Rice on the field; Mahomes has completed 74% of his passes, thrown for 585 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s got a 115.9 passer rating in these two games and the Chiefs have outscored their opponents 59-7. This week’s game won’t be as easy, especially with this high powered Buffalo offense.
Defensively, the Chiefs have been great. They rank 2nd in points allowed, 3rd in opponent first downs, 2nd in opponent pass yards and 11th in opponent rushing yards. The defense has given up just seven points over the last two weeks and hope to bring that same level of play into this week’s matchup.
This game represents more than just a game, it represents top dog in the AFC and possibly a preview of the AFC Championship Game. Lock in, this is going to be a good one.
Sunday’s Best Bets
Rashee Rice o6.5 Receptions (-130) | BetOnline
Rashee Rice is back in the lineup and no one’s happier than Rice himself. He’s garnered 19 targets in two games, catching 16 of those targets for 135 yards and three touchdowns. He’s clearly Mahomes top target and they’ve wasted no time utilizing him as such.
This week the Chiefs go on the road for the first time in three weeks. They’re also going into this game on a three game win streak and one game back of the Denver Broncos for top spot in the AFC West. The Chiefs will need all hands on deck in this matchup with the Bills and as you can see above, this is matchup Mahomes has thrived in.
The reason we’re taking the receptions instead of the yards is the fact that 80-85% of Rice’s targets come within five yards of the line of scrimmage. He’s heavily utilized in the screen game and on short passes where he can use his speed and athleticism to make a big play. It’s something that’s worked through two games, with Rice recording 96 yards after the catch in just two games.
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