Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview & Picks (11/23) | Buy the Bears this Week

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Will Aaron Rodgers play this Sunday? See our expert Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers preview & picks for NFL Week 12.

Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers

As of reports on Sunday Morning – we will not get to see Aaron Rodgers face the Bears one last time on Sunday, when his Steelers head to Soldier Field for a 1:00 pm kickoff in NFL Week 12.

Half of the Bears’ fanbase hoped he would, while the other half rejoices in his absence. History suggests the best-case scenario is to avoid Rodgers altogether, considering he owns a 26-5 record against the Bears. That means backup Mason Rudolph will lead the Steelers under center on Sunday afternoon.

This is shaping up to be one of the more compelling matchups on this week’s slate, given the history, the injury concerns, the Bears leading their division, and the Steelers fighting for their postseason lives. Let’s take a deep dive into this game with my Chicago Bears vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Preview & Picks.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.

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Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview & Picks

Will Aaron Rodgers play this Sunday? See our expert Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers preview & picks for NFL Week 12.

What impact will Aaron Rodgers’ absence bring to the table for Sunday’s game in Chicago?

Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview

The Steelers’ 41-year-old future Hall of Fame quarterback exited last week’s game with a hand injury that was later diagnosed as a fractured wrist. That means 30-year-old Mason Rudolph will be the starter. 

In Pittsburgh’s 34-12 win over Cincinnati, Rudolph stepped in and completed 12 of 16 passes for 127 yards and one touchdown. Before exiting, Rodgers had gone 9-for-15 for 116 yards and a score.

While putting up 34 points looks impressive, it came against one of the worst defenses in football – and 14 of those points came from the Steelers’ defense. The Bears themselves hung 47 on that same Bengals unit just a few weeks ago.

So how much will Rodgers be missed? The obvious answer is that it’s significant, given he’s one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. But at 41, it’s evident he isn’t the same player he once was.

This season, among 35 qualified quarterbacks, Rodgers ranks 28th in success rate, 24th in adjusted EPA per play, and 17th in CPOE. He’s completing 66.4% of his passes with a 19-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio, averaging just 19.2 completions on 29 attempts for 197 yards per game.

If the Steelers can lean on their ground attack rather than asking their quarterback to carry the offense, they will – and that approach likely won’t change with Rudolph under center. Nor should it, since the Bears have struggled against the run this season.

Chicago is allowing 5.2 yards per carry (29th), though that number has dipped to 4.9 over their last three games. Even so, they sit 20th in rush success rate and 17th in rush EPA per play allowed. Pittsburgh’s run game hasn’t been particularly strong either, ranking 17th in offensive rush success rate and 14th in rush EPA. Overall, their offense is 19th in success rate and 16th in EPA per play.

Those numbers could see a bump against this Chicago defense. The Bears are giving up 6.2 yards per play (29th) and rank 25th in success rate allowed and 16th in EPA per play.

Still, it’s clear this Bears defense is a solid, improving unit. They lead the league in turnover margin at +16, with 22 total takeaways. The next closest team, the Rams, sits at +10. Winning the turnover battle has been a major factor in Chicago’s 7-3 record and their position atop the NFC North.

Sure, Chicago can be labeled as “fraudulent,” but I don’t think any objective fan believes they’re as good as their record suggests. They’ve benefitted from an easy schedule and several late fourth-quarter comebacks. The difference this season, though, is that they’re finding ways to win instead of shooting themselves in the foot – something that’s plagued them for years.

A big part of that turnaround is first-year head coach Ben Johnson bringing competency to the building, and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams delivering in clutch moments.

Williams and the offense certainly have flaws, but they’ve risen to the occasion when it matters. They should be able to put together a strong offensive showing against one of the league’s weaker defenses on Sunday. Pittsburgh ranks 15th in success rate, 17th in EPA per play, and allows 368 yards per game – 28th in the league and worse than Chicago.

What’s fueled the Bears’ offense when the passing game has sputtered is their ground attack. Led by D’Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai, Chicago features the third-best rushing offense in total yards (1,466) and ranks second in rushing yards per game (146.6). They’re also fifth in rush success rate and eighth in EPA per rush attempt.

Defensively, stopping the run has been Pittsburgh’s biggest problem. The Steelers rank 28th in rush EPA and 19th in rush success rate allowed.

That advantage should benefit Chicago’s backs and help Williams in the passing game when working off play action.

Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks

Oddsmakers opened the Bears as three-point favorites, and initial action came in on Pittsburgh with the assumption Rodgers would play and knowing how banged-up the Bears defense is. However, now that we’ve gotten official word on Rodgers unavailability, the line has steamed back up to Chicago -3. 

Earlier in the week – when I first published this article, I laid -140 on the Bears moneyline. Whether Rodgers played or not didn’t change much in my handicap. He’s been limited in the passing game all year, and even if he suited up, he wouldn’t have been 100%. Rudolph is serviceable, but I’d be stunned if he goes into Soldier Field and knocks off one of the hottest teams in the NFL.

Chicago has plenty of fight, and this roster is fully bought in. They genuinely believe they can beat anyone. No, this team isn’t built to make a deep playoff run – maybe not even win a playoff game – but the regular season is a different story. And if you’re going to give me a cheaper price than the Bears deserve, I’ll gladly take it.

So, like I said – several days ago I played the Bears moneyline at -140. Most sportsbooks have shifted away from that number since then. However, there is still a -145 available in the market, which I highly recommend taking.

Let’s bank on Chicago grabbing a fourth straight win and improving to 8-3 – words I didn’t expect to be typing this season.

Bet: Chicago Bears Moneyline (-140)

NFL Record: 63-47 (+8.15 units)

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