Chicago Bears vs New York Giants
NFL Week 10 provides a compelling matchup in the Windy City, where the conditions might actually live up to the name. “Bear Weather” could be in play, with temperatures expected in the upper 30s, a slight chance of precipitation and winds around 16 mph.
Caleb Williams and the Bears are aiming for their sixth win of the season, while Jaxson Dart and the Giants look to snap a three-game losing skid. Which team has the edge, and what betting angles should you pursue? I’ll break it down with my Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants preview and picks.
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Chicago Bears vs New York Giants NFL Betting Insights
Can rookie running back Kyle Monangai keep up his success on the ground?
Bears vs Giants Preview
Since their big division win on Thursday Night Football, in Week 6, when they beat the Eagles 34-17, things have gone downhill for the Giants. They followed that up with a 33-32 loss in Denver, after blowing a 26-8 fourth-quarter lead, then were handled by Philadelphia 38-20, lost emerging rookie running back Cam Skattebo in the process, and most recently fell 34-24 to San Francisco.
Without Skattebo, New York’s offense lacked diversity. Quarterback Jaxson Dart ended up as their leading rusher with 56 yards on eight carries. He did complete 24 of 33 pass attempts, but for just 191 yards and two touchdowns.
Even so, the Giants still managed 24 points and ranked top-10 in both offensive EPA per play and success rate last week.
The problem remains on the defensive side. Christian McCaffrey totaled 173 all-purpose yards and scored twice, and the 49ers averaged 5.8 yards per play.
That brings New York’s season defensive numbers to 5.9 yards per play allowed and 6.1 over their last three games. Overall, they’re 30th in EPA per play allowed and 29th in defensive success rate. Their run defense is where it really unravels, ranking dead last in both rush EPA and rush success rate allowed.
Chicago’s offense is ready to take advantage. The Bears finished first in EPA per play, fourth in success rate, and second in both rush EPA and rush success rate in last week’s wild 47-42 win in Cincinnati.
The impact Coach Ben Johnson has had on this offense – and the team overall – is abundantly clear. There are still plenty of issues to address, especially on special teams after allowing an opening kick return touchdown, an onside recovery, and two missed kicks (one negated by penalty). And yes, the defense giving up 42 points stands out, but the context matters.
With Joe Flacco under center, the Bengals have quietly become one of the league’s most explosive offenses, averaging 37.7 points per game over his three starts. Meanwhile, the Bears still lead the league in turnover differential at +13, well ahead of Pittsburgh (+9). They forced three turnovers last week, including one that looked like a pick-six before being overturned on a questionable ruling that Tremaine Edmunds was “down by contact.” If that had stood, Chicago likely wins the game by three scores instead of getting dragged into chaos.
Still, they responded, battled back and closed. That’s been the theme of this team all season – executing late in tight games. The buy-in is clearly there. They just need to eliminate the self-inflicted mistakes.
Chicago Bears vs New York Giants Picks
The Bears opened as 3.5-point favorites, with the total at 49. The spread hasn’t moved, but the total has dipped into the 47.5–48.5 range. On paper, this matchup sets up for points – both offenses are capable of producing against these defenses – but the weather is worth noting. With winds projected around 15 mph, conditions won’t be ideal for a pass-heavy approach, which should dampen some of the scoring upside.
From a strategic standpoint, if you’re Ben Johnson, the focus should be on attacking the Giants on the ground. New York ranks last in both rush EPA allowed and rush success rate, and Chicago has a rookie in Kyle Monangai who looks ready for another breakout performance. The Rutgers product handled 23 carries for 176 yards in his first NFL start last week, adding three receptions for 22 yards.
D’Andre Swift’s status remains uncertain, but whether he plays or not shouldn’t change the gameplan. Chicago should be able to control the clock, sustain drives and lean on the run to dictate tempo.
The Bears’ red-zone defense is also trending upward. They sit 20th in opponent red-zone efficiency on the season at 62.1%, but that number has dropped to 54.6% over their last three games. On the flip side, Chicago’s own red-zone offense has struggled (25th at 51.7%, and 46.7% over their last three).
The Giants are in the same boat – their red-zone offense converts at just 50%, and defensively they’re second-worst in the league, allowing scores on 70% of opponent trips inside the 20. But given how inconsistent Chicago’s red-zone execution has been, that weakness from New York may not be fully exploited.
All of this leads me to the under. We have weather limiting downfield passing, an injury-thinned Giants offense, a Bears rushing attack that will shorten the game and two teams that routinely stall inside the red zone. The total should be moving further down than it has, so I’ll take advantage while it’s still in this range.
As for the side, I do lean Chicago, but I’m not interested in laying more than a field goal, so I’ll pass there. I’d also like to get involved with Bears’ rushing props, but with Swift’s status still uncertain, the market hasn’t fully posted numbers yet – so I’ll hold off on props for now.
Best Bet: Bears vs Giants Under 48.5 (-118)
NFL Record: 51-44 (+0.94 units)
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