Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints
Who would’ve thought that after the first two weeks of the season, the Chicago Bears would find themselves riding a three-game win streak? From blowing a 17-6 second-half lead at home against a rookie quarterback in their opener, to giving up 52 points the following week – few would’ve expected them to bounce back with three straight wins.
That turnaround is a huge testament to the foundation first-year head coach Ben Johnson is building and the fight his team continues to show.
On the other side, despite their 1-5 record, the New Orleans Saints have been scrappy in nearly every game this season. Three of their five losses have come by one score, and it could’ve easily been four if not for a late fourth-quarter collapse against the Bills on the road.
Can the Bears follow up their Monday night buzzer-beater win and extend their streak, or will the Saints’ competitive fire finally pay off? Here’s what to expect in my Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints preview and picks.
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Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints NFL Betting Insights
Spencer Rattler is looking to guide his team to its second win of the season on Sunday in Chicago.
Bears vs Saints Preview
Heading into Week 6, New Orleans had a fairly respectable defense by most metrics, ranking 15th in overall defensive EPA per play and 19th in success rate allowed.
However, after a 25-19 loss to Drake Maye and the Patriots – who gained 333 total yards – the Saints have slipped to 20th in EPA per play allowed and 21st in success rate.
One positive development came in their run defense. They’ve improved from ninth to fifth in EPA per rush play allowed. That’s not too surprising when looking at the box score from last week: Maye led New England in rushing with just 28 yards on nine carries. TreVeyon Henderson added 27 yards on nine attempts, while Rhamondre Stevenson struggled badly, averaging only 1.4 yards per carry on 13 rushes for 18 total yards.
The Bears, meanwhile, finally pieced together a strong rushing performance on Monday night. D’Andre Swift led the way with 108 rushing yards on 14 carries, averaging an impressive 7.7 yards per attempt. He’ll look to build on that effort against a Saints front seven that’s holding opposing backs to just 3.8 yards per carry.
Chicago’s defense had been its biggest concern heading into Monday night. Before that game, the Bears were allowing the most yards per play in the NFL (6.7) while ranking 30th in success rate and 18th in defensive EPA per play. They’re still last in yards per play allowed, though that figure has dipped slightly to 6.5 after holding the Commanders to just 5.5 yards per play. Chicago also climbed to 28th in success rate allowed but remained stagnant in EPA per play given up. It’s a minor step forward, but this defense is still a long-term issue.
Even so, the Bears turned in one of their best defensive efforts of the season. They limited Jayden Daniels to just 205 passing yards and contained Jacory Croskey-Merritt to 61 yards on 17 carries (3.6 yards per attempt). Chicago also intercepted Daniels once and recovered two key fumbles – all crucial in securing the win.
The Saints, meanwhile, rank 26th in offensive EPA per play. Quarterback Spencer Rattler sits 24th in adjusted EPA per play, 12th in success rate, and 14th in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) among 34 qualified quarterbacks.
Believe it or not, Caleb Williams ranks lower across the board – 26th in adjusted EPA, 30th in success rate, and 32nd in CPOE.
Still, regardless of what the numbers say, Williams keeps finding ways to win – and that’s what matters most to the Bears’ organization, but not necessarily to us bettors.
Chicago vs New Orleans Picks
Oddsmakers opened the Bears as 7.5-point favorites with the total set at 44.5. Based on everything outlined above, it’s no surprise to see the market move in New Orleans’ favor – Chicago is now down to -5.5, with the total ticking up to 47.5.
Outside of their 31-14 dismantling of the Cowboys, the Bears’ other two wins have each come by just one point – both by the identical score of 25-24. I expect Chicago to get the job done and extend its win streak, but I’m less confident in them covering the spread. They’re on a short week after an emotional Monday night victory and now face a scrappy Saints team that refuses to roll over.
As for the total, the move upward feels a bit aggressive. Yes, both defenses have struggled, but each is capable of stepping up. The Bears remain vulnerable against the run, yet the Saints haven’t exactly thrived on the ground, ranking 22nd in rush EPA per play and 24th in rush success rate.
Through the air, Spencer Rattler has been serviceable but far from explosive. He’s thrown for more than one touchdown in just one game this season and hasn’t eclipsed 230 passing yards. If Chicago’s defense can carry over some of its momentum from Monday night, it could limit this Saints offense enough to keep scoring in check.
Weather could also play a role. Forecasts at Soldier Field call for temperatures in the 50s, potential rain, and double-digit winds – not brutal conditions, but certainly not ideal for a shootout.
And while the Bears and Caleb Williams appear to be trending upward, the underlying metrics still lag behind. Chicago ranks 24th in offensive success rate and 23rd in offensive EPA per play.
Given those factors, I expect both teams to lean on their ground games early, chewing clock and keeping the pace slower, all of which points toward a play on the under.
I’ll also be monitoring the prop market as numbers open later in the week. Be sure to check back here for updates, or catch Any Given Wager on Thursday or Friday at 1 p.m. ET for my additional best bets.
Best Bet: Bears/Saints Under 47.5 (-110) BetOnline
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