Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys: In the Windy City, Sunday’s second-highest total sets up a projected offensive battle between Caleb Williams and the Bears and Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
This total opened as low as 47.5 and now sits at 50.5. Both defenses have shown vulnerabilities, and injuries on Chicago’s side have also contributed to the movement toward the over.
Not only did the Bears lose their top cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, who’s out indefinitely with a groin injury, but fellow corner Kyler Gordon is questionable with a hamstring issue and didn’t practice Wednesday. Linebacker T.J. Edwards is also dealing with a hamstring injury and missed practice as well.
Can the Bears get their first win of the season, or will the Cowboys carry their momentum from last week’s overtime thriller into Soldier Field and spoil Chicago’s Sunday?
I’ll tell you with my Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys picks and predictions.
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Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys NFL Betting Insights
Can Dak Prescott lead the Cowboys to back-to-back wins this Sunday?
Sunday’s Setup: I’m sure plenty of people are looking at this line, chomping at the bit to back Dallas and thinking, “How are the Cowboys only a one-and-a-half-point favorite? Didn’t we just see the Bears lose by 31 to the Lions last week?”
That’s a reasonable initial reaction, especially after a defense gives up 50 on the way to a second straight loss. Add in Dallas winning in dramatic fashion, and it’s no surprise the betting public is enamored with the Cowboys.
Before the Bears did what they often do – lose in ugly fashion in both Weeks 1 and 2 – they were listed as high as 3-point favorites. The chalk has since flipped, with Dallas now favored at -1.5.
So why were the Bears favored to begin with, and is the current line too short on the Cowboys?
For starters, the Bears had higher-than-usual expectations coming into this season for a few reasons. Ben Johnson was brought in to lead the team out of dysfunction, though that’s clearly still a work in progress. Caleb Williams had a full season under his belt and was given more weapons, though rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden have yet to make an impact.
The Cowboys, much like the Bears, also brought in a new head coach – their former offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. The direction of the team was already in question, and then they traded away their best player, Micah Parsons.
Since Jerry Jones greenlit that deal, Dallas nearly knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles and followed it up with a wild overtime win over the Giants.
But while Dallas impressed in Week 1, it’s worth remembering the context. They had all offseason to prepare, they played with a chip on their shoulder to prove they didn’t need Parsons, and Philadelphia may have been dealing with a championship hangover. Last week tells a different story – what’s so impressive about letting Russell Wilson throw for nearly 500 yards after he couldn’t crack 170 or score a touchdown the week before?
That first game was a rallying moment – a team fired up to prove something without its star. But the truth is, without Parsons, this defense just isn’t very good. We see this all the time in sports: teams rise up for one game in the spotlight, then fall back to reality.
As for the Bears, let’s be honest: nine times out of ten, they should’ve beaten Minnesota in Week 1. No need to relive it, but inaccuracy, poor coaching, and lack of discipline cost them. Those issues still exist, but Caleb Williams actually showed progress in Week 2 despite losing by 31. How much can the kid really do if his defense is giving up 50-plus points?
Outside of the errant interception, he showed growth. And that’s the theme of this Bears season – not immediate success, but incremental improvement under a new system. Losing at Detroit wasn’t shocking. Embarrassing, yes, to allow that many points, but it was a perfect get-right spot for the Lions after their own ugly loss at Lambeau in Week 1.
The point is, we have to be careful about how much stock we put into the first two weeks when analyzing this matchup. Prescott has looked sharp, but his defense has been brutal. Williams is improving, but his defense is also banged up and struggling.
When you zoom out – factoring in the Bears playing at home and Dallas being slightly disadvantaged outside of their indoor comfort zone – it’s not crazy to see why this spread is as narrow as it is. Heck, the Cowboys actually rank lower (30th) in defensive EPA per play allowed than the Bears (29th).
Bets to Consider: While I’d lean toward taking the points with the Bears, the safer route is teasing them from +1.5 up to +7.5 and pairing them with another team.
The over is tempting, but we’ve already missed the best of the number by a few points, and I’m not interested in chasing a worse line.
In the prop market, both quarterbacks stand out.
Chicago’s secondary ranks dead last in yards per completion allowed (13.0) and 29th in completion percentage allowed (75%). Dallas isn’t much better, sitting 31st in completion percentage allowed (76.6%) and 27th in yards per completion allowed (11.6).
Prescott’s passing yards prop is posted as low as 257.5 with -112 juice to the over. The Bears rank 27th in yards allowed per play-action dropback, while Prescott ranks 5th in play-action passing, according to PFF. Chicago’s defensive line has also been a liability, ranking 28th in pressure rate. Meanwhile, Prescott ranks 10th in passing grade from a clean pocket. If the Bears can’t generate pressure, Dak should have all day to pick them apart, especially with Chicago’s banged-up secondary.
That sets up well for Prescott to go over his yardage prop.
As for Caleb Williams, I’d lean toward the over on his passing prop (231.5), but he’s volatile in that area, and Ben Johnson has stressed the need for a more efficient ground game. I think he clears the number, but there’s a better angle.
That’s with his rushing. Through two games, Williams has 11 carries for 85 yards (7.7 YPC) and a touchdown. Dallas ranks 30th in quarterback rushing yards allowed, giving up 62 yards on 14 carries to Jalen Hurts and 23 yards on just three attempts to an aging Russell Wilson.
The Cowboys also bring the third-highest hurry rate (12.8%) and fourth-highest pressure rate (28.2%) through two weeks. Against a poor Chicago offensive line, Williams will be forced to scramble and create opportunities with his legs – something we witness almost every week.
Take a look at Williams over 26.5 rushing yards (-110).
Plays:
- Dak Prescott Over 257.5 Passing Yards (-112)
- Caleb Williams Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
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