Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns Preview, Predictions & Props (12/14)

Ben Johnson if he expects to get Kyler Gordon back this season:

“To be determined … Coming out of that one, he didn’t look really good.”

— CHGO Bears (@CHGO_Bears) December 10, 2025

Chicago sits 24th in dropback EPA and 20th in dropback success rate allowed. They still lead the league in turnover differential, though, at +17, with 27 total takeaways this season.

The concern this week isn’t really the Bears secondary – it’s the run defense, which has been the problem all season. Chicago ranks 30th in yards per carry allowed at 5.1 per attempt. If the Browns can shield Sanders in the pass game and lean on their ground efforts, that’s exactly what they’ll try to do, especially on the road in those freezing conditions.

Chicago also ranks 28th in rush success rate and 23rd in rush EPA. Luckily for them, Cleveland’s offense is even worse in those areas – 31st in rush success rate and 26th in rush EPA.

Browns rookie running back Quinshon Judkins will be a major focal point of their offense, but he’s been largely inefficient, which shouldn’t be surprising given Cleveland’s run-game metrics. Over his past eight games, Judkins is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. And last week, against a much weaker Tennessee team, he managed only 1.9 yards per attempt – 14 carries for 26 yards.

If Judkins can’t get going against Chicago, it’s going to be a long, aggravating afternoon for Shedeur Sanders.

Bears vs Browns Predictions & Props

It’s Bear weather on Sunday, and that should give Chicago the edge when it’s all said and done. Relax – I know Cleveland plays in freezing temperatures too, but the Bears still have the advantage in this matchup regardless of the conditions.

Caleb Williams is the much better quarterback, and that’ll show when it’s needed. Ideally, it doesn’t take him until the second half to get going like it did last week at Lambeau, but if he can hit the necessary throws to keep the chains moving, that’ll be the difference.

Pair his timely throws with one of the league’s best rushing attacks, and it’s no surprise Ben Johnson’s team has stacked the wins they have. Chicago controls time of possession at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (32:03), and that’ll be a huge separator in this game. The Bears should be able to lean on their Swift–Monangai tandem, and their defense should do enough against Sanders and Judkins to get the ball back in their offense’s hands consistently.

Aside from the weather, that’s a big reason we’re seeing such a low total, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one stays under the already low mark of 39. I don’t love touching the spread here. Laying more than a key number of seven in a low-scoring game, with a team that always finds itself in close battles, is an uninspiring task. But I still expect the home team to get the job done outright.

Where I am looking to get involved is in the prop market.

Let’s make a couple of plays on a rookie running back, but on the one who’s been more effective this season: Kyle Monangai.

I’m backing Monangai to go over his rushing yards prop and to score a touchdown on Sunday. The best number available on his rushing yards sits at 49.5, with +105 odds, while the best price on him to find the end zone is +155.

As strong as the Browns defense has been this season, they’ve bent, though not completely broken, against the run lately, and that’s all we need with this Bears rushing attack. Each of the last 10 starting running backs to face Cleveland has rushed for at least 50 yards. Over the last four games, both Monangai and D’Andre Swift have logged 60 total rush attempts, but over the past two games the volume has tilted slightly toward the rookie, 36 carries to Swift’s 31. Both backs are averaging 4.8 yards per carry this season.

That slight uptick in usage, paired with a rushing yards prop that’s several yards lower than Swift’s, creates more value on Monangai. There’s little doubt the Bears will lean on the ground game again, and if Monangai sees around 13–14 carries, he should be in a strong position to clear 49.5 rushing yards.

There’s no doubt the Bears will emphasize their ground attack again, so as long as Monangai is getting around 13 to 14 reps, then we should see him eclipse 49.5 rushing yards.

I’m also banking on a handful of those carries coming near the goal line. Monangai scored in four straight games before last week’s matchup in Green Bay, and despite that brief pause, he remains a strong anytime touchdown target given his price, role, matchup and expected weather conditions.