We went two for three last week and honestly the Jalen Coker play was a mistake by me. This week I’ve got three more touchdown scorers so let’s jump right into it.
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Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown (+220)
Dalton Kincaid should return to the field this week and Josh Allen couldn’t be happier. The Bills have lost back to back games and scored just 14 points last week in Kincaid’s absence. Kincaid is leading the team in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and has been this team’s best option through the air.
This week the Bills will head to Carolina to take on Andy Dalton and the Panthers. Carolina’s defense ranks 10th in pass yards allowed but 29th in receiving yards allowed to the tight end position. Their linebacking crew has had a tough time keeping the opposition out of the endzone, giving up a combined four touchdowns between the two starters.
The Panthers gave up touchdowns to Jake Ferguson, Darren Waller and Hunter Henry this year. They rank 23rd in touchdowns allowed to the position and have just not done a good job against the TE position. The opposite is true of their secondary, they rank 3rd in yards allowed to WRs and 6th in touchdowns allowed to the position.
The Panthers are also giving up the 10th most production to slot receivers this year and Kincaid’s taking 57% of his snaps in the slot. Kincaid’s also thriving against zone coverage schemes. The Panthers are running zone at a top three rate this year, specifically Cover-3.
Kincaid sees a 32% boost in yards per route run against Cover-3 and a 25% boost in targets per route run. He’s seeing a 25% target rate against zone coverages this year, posting a 93% catch rate, 193 yards and three touchdowns. He’s the Bills #1 graded receiver against zone this year and it’s the perfect time for him to come back into the lineup.
Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown (+210)
Chris Olave is the third highest targeted pass catcher on the year. He’s been targeted 68 times this year and is seeing a 31% target share with the Saints. Olave sits 7th this year in redzone targets and is coming off a two touchdown week against the Bears.
The Saints are returning home to take on their division rival the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa ranks 22nd in pass yards allowed and 14th in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers.
Just to add a little narrative to this one, we’ve got a couple Ohio State Buckeye Alumni going head to head in this one. Both Olave and Emeka Egbuka were part of the 2021 Ohio State Buckeyes, along with Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jaxson Smith-Njigba. Yeah, incredible receiving room.
Egbuka being the youngest of the bunch is now in his rookie year. He’s played two of his former teammates already this year and both Wilson and JSN got in for six.
We love the narrative but the Buccaneers have also just struggled against opposing WR1s this year. Both Amon-ra St. Brown and Nico Collins also got into the endzone this year against the Buccaneers and this week I think it’s Olave’s turn.
Courtland Sutton Anytime Touchdown (+140)
The Denver Broncos take on the worst pass defense in the NFL this week. The Dallas Cowboys rank 30th in points allowed, 24th in defensive redzone efficiency, last in opponent third down conversion rate and last in pass yards allowed. The team can’t stop anyone through the air and it’s becoming a big problem.
Dallas ranks 30th in touchdowns allowed to the wide receiver position and have allowed one to the opposing WR1 in five of their seven games this year. The secondary hasn’t been good but a big problem is the lack of pass rush with Dallas. The team ranks 23rd in sack percentage this year and look desperate for a big name pass-rusher before the deadline.
That’s why we’re looking at Courtland Sutton this week to get in the endzone in front of his home crowd. Last week he finished with 10 targets and 87 yards but was held out of the endzone during the Broncos big comeback and on the day they honored former Bronco Demariyus Thomas.
All signs were pointing at Sutton getting in last week and now against the Cowboys he’s got an even better matchup.
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