It’s already Week 5, the season’s already speeding by. We’ve got more touchdowns to discuss this week, so let’s jump right into it.
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Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown (+140)
The Ravens are battered and bruised, we’re here to take advantage. Baltimore ranks last in points allowed, 28th in red zone defensive efficiency, 30th in first downs allowed and 31st in pass yards allowed. The defense has been terrible and now they could be missing seven defensive starters.
Nico Collins and the Texans have struggled on offense, the offensive line looks bad and Stroud’s had no time in the pocket. Last week, against a bottom-5 pass rush in the Titans, Stroud and the offense came alive. The Texans scored 26 points, Stroud threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns. Nico finished the game with four catches on six targets for 79 yards and no scores.
On the season, Nico’s seeing a 27% target share, he’s caught 18 balls for 260 yards and two touchdowns. Both of his touchdowns have come on plays of 25 or more yards and he’s yet to score from the redzone. Nico leads the team in redzone targets but the Texans have seen limited redzone trips this year. Houston currently ranks dead last in redzone trips per game, but did convert both trips last week into six.
Baltimore’s allowed the most redzone trips on the season, the most redzone touchdowns (15) and 10 of those have come through the air. The Ravens defensive line ranks in the bottom-5 and now without Nnamdi Madubuike, I expect them to have a tough time generating pressure. This feels like the perfect spot for the Texans to capitalize and get this offense going. Look for Nico to get in for six this week.
Jameson Williams Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Jameson Williams saw eight targets last week, just four deemed ‘catchable’. The Lions were matched up with the Cleveland Browns and that Browns’ pass rush can make it difficult for any quarterback. This week they’ll be in Cincinnati going up against a Bengals defense that has looked terrible. The Bengals rank 27th in points allowed, 30th in touchdowns allowed, 30th in pass yards allowed and have the 26th graded pass rush in the league.
Jammo finished last week with just two catches, 40 receiving yards and no touchdowns. Amon-Ra lead the team in receiving yards with 70 yards on seven catches. Jammo lead the team in targets, with his eight targets combining for a potential 215 air yards. So let’s do some quick math, 215 air yards minus the 40 yards he finished with. That’s 175 yards of unrealized air yards in a single game.
After the game Jared Goff had a lot to say about it, taking the blame for some of the throws he missed and just gleaming with great things to say about Jammo. Williams is seeing an average depth of target of 20 yards this year and this Lions offense LOVES making splash plays. He’s a huge part of this offense and this week against a bad Bengals secondary, I think we see one of those home run balls finally connect.
Garrett Wilson Anytime Touchdown (+150)
Normally when the Cowboys visit MetLife, it’s the Giants they’re up against. This week Justin Fields and the win-less Jets host Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. We’ve got 1.5-point spread and a total at 47.5. The Cowboys come into this game with one of the league’s worst defenses, but one of the most potent offenses. Last week we saw it perfectly encapsulated in their game with Green Bay; the scored 40 points but also gave up 40 points.
This week it’s the Jets and they should, theoretically, handle business .The Jets have looked bad, both offensively and defensively; ranking 28th in points allowed and just 19th in points scored. That’s why this spread makes no sense, 80% of the bets and almost 70% of the handle’s on the Cowboys, but the line hasn’t budged. Now, we don’t have to bet the Jets; but points will be scored.
Wilson’s seeing a 37% target share this year, 2nd amongst all wide receivers in the NFL. He’ literally the Jets only wide receiver and it’s why Breece Hall is second on this team in targets. Wilson’s caught 27 of his 38 targets, averaging 77.8 yards per game with three touchdowns already this year. He’s scored in three of four weeks this year and this week he goes up against a Cowboys’ secondary that’s given up the most touchdowns to wideouts.
Wilson’s also from Texas, having grown up in Austin before leaving for Ohio State. This game isn’t in Texas, but this is just the second time Wilson’s played the Cowboys in his young career. He’ finished that game with eight targets, just two catches; one being a touchdown.
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