It’s Week 4 of the NFL and we’ve got more touchdowns to bet. Let’s jump right into it.
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Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown (+125)
Absolutely no surprise here, but this is as chalky as I’ll get. Davante Adams has been elite for the Los Angeles Rams this year and it feels like him and Stafford aren’t even on the same page yet. In three games so far this year, he’s caught 13 balls for 213 yards and two touchdowns. He’s averaging 16.4 yards per catch and seeing a 31.2% target share. The problem is just 52% of Adams targets have been deemed ‘catchable’ this year.
Compare that to his teammate Puka Nacua, who’s seeing an 86% catchable target rate and you quickly see the problem. Some of it’s the fact that this is just their first year together, some of it’s the pressure Stafford’s been under. This week the Rams will face a Colts team with the 29th graded pass rush in the NFL and that should give Stafford plenty of time. Adams will see a majority of the game matched up with either Xavien Howard or Chevarius Ward for the Colts.
Howard is ranked 96th of 99 cornerbacks this year in coverage grade, he’s been targeted 12 times, giving up nine catches for 83 yards and two touchdowns. He’s allowed quarterbacks a quarterback rating of 133.0 when targeted and it doesn’t get easier this week. As for Ward, Adams’ has a career 35% target rate when lined up opposite of Ward.
Stafford’s the #1 graded quarterback when kept clean; completing 77% of his passes for 535 yards and five touchdowns. Two of those touchdowns have been to Davante and that’s the part of the field he excels. Adams is seeing 47% of the team’s redzone target share and leads the league in endzone targets with seven. He remains the best short yardage wide receiver in the league, even at 32 years old.
Matthew Golden Anytime Touchdown (+240)
Keep scrolling because we’re here to take Matthew Golden once again. The Cowboys currently rank 27th in touchdowns allowed, 31st in touchdowns allowed to wideouts, and 32nd in pass yards allowed. Dallas is giving up 30.7 points per game and now they face off with a Packers team coming off an ugly loss.
Golden remains one of the league’s best separators, despite not seeing the target share that comes with it. Last week was promising, Golden caught all four of his targets for 52 yards and honestly should’ve scored. He had 34 yard go-route he caught with no one behind him, unfortunately momentum carried him out of bounds; supposedly.
This will be Golden’s first trip back to Texas since joining the Packers. He grew up in Houston and played his his college ball in Austin, for the Texas Longhorns. You’ d have to imagine a game at AT&T Stadium means a little more to the young receiver.
Lastly, the Packers need to throw the ball more. Green Bay ranks 29th in pass play percentage (49.7%) and 28th in pass attempts per game. Outside of the interception last week, Love’s looked great and so has this receiving core. When kept clean this year, Love’s graded as the 5th best quarterback in the league, with an 84% completion rate, five touchdowns and one interception. The Cowboys rank 24th in pass rush grade and have generated just four sacks this year.
Simply put, the Cowboys don’t have the speed to keep up with Golden or the guys up front to get to Love. Look for these two to FINALLY, connect for six.
Jakobi Meyers Anytime Touchdown (+160)
Jakobi Meyers has yet to score a touchdown this year, has just two redzone targets in general; but somehow sits at +160 to get in the endzone this week. The line feels short and it’s telling me Jakobi gets in for six this week. Now let’s back it up with some stats.
The Chicago Bears have been getting torched by slot wide receivers this year, ranking 28th in receiving yards allowed to wideouts this year; with 50% of that production coming from the slot. Slot corner Nick McCloud ranks 86/99 among defensive backs in coverage grade this year. He’s been targeted 10 times in the slot this year, giving up eight catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns. Jakobi Meyers is taking 65% of his snaps from the slot and leads the team in target share.
Geno Smith’s coming off a game in which he threw for 289 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. This week he gets a soft Bears secondary that ranks 31st in touchdowns allowed to wideouts. Chicago’s given up eight passing touchdowns this year, six of them have been to opposing wideouts.
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