It’s Week 3 of the NFL and we’re here to talk more touchdowns. With so many great matchups across the board, let’s jump right into it.
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Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown (+180)
Let’s kick it off with a familiar face, Davante Adams. Adams has seen a 32% target share through two weeks, recording 10 catches, 157 yards through the air and one touchdown. Adams scored his first touchdown of the season last week and his first touchdown with his new team.
Last week we saw Adams not only see more targets than Puka Nacua, but he now leads the team in target share and is seeing 42% of the team’s redzone targets. The Rams went 3/6 in the redzone against Tennessee and that’s just not something you can do against the Eagles.
Adams has seen 21 total targets this year but second in ‘catchable’ targets. Just 12 of Adams’ 21 targets have been deemed ‘catchable’ and it’s something we’ll need to see change if the Rams hope to make a deep run this year.
Philadelphia lost both Darius Slay and Isaiah Rodgers in the offseason and because of it slot corner Cooper DeJean has become the team’s top coverage cornerback. The Eagles have looked bad against outside receivers this year and a lot of that is because of Quinyon Mitchell and Adoree Jackson. Jackson’s ranked 91st of 95 qualifying corners this year with Mitchell coming in at 32nd.
Adams’ lines up out wide on 73.4% of his snaps, so look for him to take advantage of the poor cornerback play in Philadelphia.
Matthew Golden Anytime Touchdown (+250)
Maybe I’m crazy, but I’m going right back to Matthew Golden after last week. Jordan Love and the Packers have dominated through two weeks and it kind of feels like they haven’t unlocked the full potential of this offense. The team’s defense has been elite, giving up just 15,5 points per game, 238 total yards per game and just 48.5 rush yards per game. Green Bay’s recorded eight sacks on the year, ranking 2nd overall amongst all 32 teams.
On the offensive side of the ball however, they’ve got someone with loads of untapped talent; Matthew Golden. Golden recorded 1,975 yards in his three year college career, finishing with 24 total touchdowns and an average of 14.7 yards per catch. He ran a 4.29 at the combine this year and is quite literally the 2nd fastest player to come out of this year’s draft.
Golden leads the league in separation score through two weeks and his speed has been on full display. The Browns run Cover 1 on 46% of their defensive snaps and that’s the exact type of coverage Golden should be able to take advantage of.
Love missed Golden on two absolute bombs in Week 2, both possible touchdowns if the two manage to connect. Now the Packers enter Week 3 after getting a bit of an extended break, their last game coming last on Thursday Night Football last week. This mini bye week for the Packers should allow for more time for the two to get on the same page and something tells me they connect on a big one here in Week 3.
Kyle Pitts Anytime Touchdown (+290)
Let’s cap it off with something a little more juicy. Kyle Pitts sits second on this Falcons team in target share with 13 targets so far this year, 11 receptions for 96 yards and no touchdowns so far. Pitts is averaging just under nine yards per catch this year and it’s clear that he’s developed a certain chemistry with his young quarterback.
Carolina’s given up 53 points in two games and have struggled against opposing tight ends. In Week 1 we saw the Trey McBride torch this defense for six receptions and 78 yards; in Week 2 it was rookie Brenton Strange catching four balls for 59 yards. They’ve given up just one touchdown to tight ends this year, coming in Week 1 to the Jaguars backup tight end; Hunter Long.
The Panthers also ranked top three in Cover 3 usage last season and that’s the exact type of defensive scheme we’ve seen Pitts thrive against. Going back to last season, Pitts sees a 59% increase in production against Cover 3 schemes and all three of his touchdowns last season came against zone schemes. Look for him to once again take advantage this week.
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