How’d we get here so fast? It’s Week 15 and the season’s just flying by way too fast. I’ve got three touchdown scorers I love this week and I’ll warn you in advance; we’re gonna sweat some big boys today.
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Harold Fannin Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+280) | Lucky Rebel
The Browns’ rookie no one was talking about in the offseason. Harold Fannin Jr. has burst onto the scene in a big way and his connection with Shadeur Sanders has looked fantastic despite the small sample size. Fannin Jr. is the Browns’ leading receiver this year, recording 59 receptions, 619 yards and 4 touchdowns so far in his rookie year.
In Fannin’s last three games, all with Sanders under center; he’s caught 15 passes for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Browns offense came alive last week against the Titans and this week they face a Bears team that ranks 25th in points allowed, 28th in touchdowns allowed, 21st in pass yards allowed, 30th in opponent yards per play and 26th in sacks.
Chicago’s inability to get to the QB is what’s cost them all year and now with Sanders coming off his best game yet, I’m expecting the Browns to put up some points. The Bears have given up the 2nd most passing touchdowns on the year (27) and despite the cold weather I think Shadeur can take advantage.
Fannin’s seeing a 23.9% target share with Shadeur under center and saw 1 of the 2 redzone targets the Browns have had over the last three weeks. Both Fannin and Njoku scored from the redzone last week and this week the team will be without the vet, Njoku.
Theo Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+240) | Lucky Rebel
It might as well be National Tight End Day.
Jaxson Dart made his return to play last week and while the Giants didn’t win, they did only lose by a touchdown. The offense scored just 17 points and Dart threw the ball jut 24 times. Of those 24 passes, 16 went to the tandem of Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson; both splitting the targets right down them middle.
Last week’s game was against a Patriots defense that 5th in points allowed and 8th in touchdowns allowed. This week het gets the Commanders and a secondary that ranks 27th in receiving yards allowed and 26th in touchdowns allowed. Washington ranks 31st in touchdowns allowed to opposing TEs and they’re allowing opponents to convert 64% of their redzone trips into touchdowns (27th).
The Commanders rank 26th in redzone successful pass plays allowed (40.3%) and Johnson leads the team in redzone routes run and redzone target rate. He leads the team in redzone target share with Dart under center and after catching just 3 of his 8 targets last week, I’m expecting a big game from the second year TE.
Colby Parkinson Anytime Touchdown (+230) | Lucky Rebel
I told you, it’s all big boys today.
With the injury to Tyler Higbee, the Rams were missing the presence of a real pass catching TE and a run after the catch guy. Enter, Colby Parkinson. Since the bye week, Parkinson’s been playing a majority of the offensive snaps for the Rams and he leads all of the Rams’ TEs in routes run, sitting behind just Puka and Davante in terms of Rams’ pass catchers.
Parkinson’s garnered 16 targets in his last 5 games, 11 of those targets have come in the redzone and he’s scored a touchdown in 4 of the 5 games. Detroit’s given up 25 passing touchdowns this year and this week they play Matt Stafford; their former franchise QB and this year’s league leader in touchdown passes (35).
The Rams have the 4th ranked offense, 3rd ranked redzone offense, and 3rd ranked passing offense. They average 4.4 redzone trips per game (1st), converting 67% of them into touchdowns. If Matt Stafford’s throwing multiple touchdowns this week against his former squad, one of them’s gotta make it’s way to Parkinson; the guy’s already doubled his career high and he did it in just five weeks as the starter.
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