Week 14 is here and the race for the playoffs is starting to tighten up. With so many teams competing for only so many spots, it’s time to lock in and separate the winners from the losers. Let’s jump right into my touchdowns this week.
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Terry McLaurin Anytime Touchdown (+200) | BetOnline
Jayden Daniels is back for the Washington Commanders, despite Washington probably looking like they’re going to miss the postseason. Regardless, Daniels is back and this Commanders offense is finally beginning to get healthy. Terry McLaurin made his return to the field last week, catching 7 of his 14 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown.
Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin have only played 19 games together since the QB entered the league last year. In those 19 games, McLaurin’s got 13 touchdowns. Daniels has 28 passing touchdowns in those 19 games and 13 of those touchdowns have gone to Scary Terry.
The Vikings have gone three straight weeks without allowing a touchdown through the air, but that’s got more to do with the fashion in which they’ve been beat. The Vikings have now lost four games in a row, three of which have been by more than a touchdown. This week the Vikings come in as a pick ’em and the total sitting at 43/44.
Looks like we’re going to see points in this one and that’s why I’m going to the veteran wideout for the Commanders.
Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown (+180) | BetOnline
This one’s a little bit of a narrative spot. Christian Watson’s season ended last year in Week 18, against this very Bears’ team and here at Lambeau Field. It was a non-contact injury that resulted in him tearing his ACL and with it any hopes the Packers had at making a deep run in the postseason.
He made his return to play in late October of this season and the Packers offense has since been unlocked. They’ve scored 23+ points in four of the six games Watson’s played in and a lot of that has to do with Watson’s big play ability.
We saw that big play ability on full display last week. Watson reeled in a 51-yard touchdown early in the 3rd quarter and it was on one of the nicest deep balls we’ve seen this year. Watson’s now scored 3 touchdowns in his last three games, scoring in two of the three games and recording 5+ targets in each one.
Since coming back, Watson’s seeing an 18.1% target share, tied for #1 on the Packers and he’s seen a 26.7% first read target share. Over the team’s last three games, all with Watson no longer on snap count; his target share has ballooned to 28.2% with a 37.5% first read target share.
The Bears have struggled this year against opposing wideouts, especially against receivers lined up out wide. Chicago ranks 28th in touchdowns allowed this year and 30th in touchdowns allowed to opposing WRs. Just in their last few games, the Bears have given up touchdowns to A.J. Brown (2), D.K. Metcalf, Jordan Addison, Tee Higgins (2) and Chris Olave.
I’m expecting Watson to get in for six this week as a bit of poetic justice after the way his season ended last year.
Tyler Warren Anytime Touchdown (+170) | BetOnline
Let’s cap it off with a little love for the TE position. Tyler Warren’s been amazing in his rookie year. The kid’s on pace for 1,000 yards in his rookie year as a TE and he’s already got 5 touchdowns on the year. The Colts have used him in a variety of ways this year, even using him under center for their version of the ‘tush push’.
He’s got 4 touchdowns through the air, 1 on the ground and he’s second on the team in target share. Warren’s seeing a 21.1% target share this year and that jumps to nearly 29% in the redzone. He leads the team in redzone targets, targets inside the 20 and endzone targets. He’s been huge for this offense and this week in a big divisional matchup, I’m expecting them to lean on the young TE.
Warren’s seeing a 25.6% first read target share in the redzone this year and that’s a part of the field the Jaguars have struggled to defend. Jacksonville ranks 23rd in opponent redzone efficiency, allowing opponents to convert 60% of their redzone trips into touchdowns.
Divisional game between the two top dogs in the AFC South, yet we’ve got a total at 46/47. Looks like we’re going to see points in this one too and if that’s the case, I’m rolling with the rookie TE out of Penn State.
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