It’s Week 13 and the hunt for the playoffs is getting tighter and tighter. This week I’ve got three more touchdown scorers I love so let’s jump right into it.
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Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+140) | BetOnline
Trey McBride’s production has exploded. In the six games with Brissett, Mcbride’s averaging 11.2 targets per game, 8.5 receptions, 87.0 yards and 10.2 yards per catch. He’s scored a touchdown in five of the six games, being held out of the endzone in their most recent game against the Jaguars. McBride still finished with 9 catches on 10 targets for 79 yards.
The Buccaneers are giving up 4.7 touchdowns per game over their last three games and have allowed teams to convert 75% of their redzone trips into touchdowns. The Buccaneers redzone defense ranks 29th on the year, allowing opponents to turn 66.7% of their redzone attempts into touchdowns. Tampa ranks 27th in touchdowns allowed this year and McBride’s first read target share in the redzone is bonkers.
McBride’s seeing a first read target share of 36.4% in the redzone and the Buccaneers have allowed 2+ passing downs in 6 of their last 9 games. Brissett’s thrown 2+ touchdowns in five of his six starts, those same five starts also coincide with games McBride found pay dirt.
Lastly, out of everyone on this Buccaneers defense, it’s Lavonte David that’s been the biggest surprise. David’s been terrible in coverage this year and it’s why he’s given up 4 touchdowns. McBride and Brissett have a fantastic connection and this week in Tampa Bay I’m expecting the big man to get in for six.
Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown (+130) | BetOnline
I can’t believe I’m going to spend my Sunday hoping for Tua Tagovailoa to throw a touchdown pass. It just feels right.
The Saints rank 22nd in points allowed and haven’t done a good job of generating pressure. They’ve allowed 23 or more points in five of their last six games and it’s becoming a bit of a theme. The offense struggles to generate first downs and keep drives moving. This leads to their defense being on the field a lot more than some others and it leads to tired defensive players.
The combination of Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alonte Taylor have given up 13 combined touchdowns and both allow for passer ratings over 120 when targeted. Both cornerbacks have allowed more touchdowns this year than they have PBUs (pass break-ups). New Orleans has given up 20 touchdowns through the air, 13 of which have been to wideouts. They’ve given up 2+ passing touchdowns in 8 of their 11 games this year and that’s something Tua’s done in 6 of his 11 games.
After back to back wins with a fairly quiet Tua, I’m expecting a bit of positive regression with such a great matchup on the docket. New Orleans ranks 26th in touchdowns allowed to opposing wideouts, 22nd in opponent redzone efficiency and 22nd in points allowed. Waddle’s seeing a 22.7% redzone target share .
Troy FranklinAnytime Touchdown (+170) | BetOnline
Fresh off their bye week and headed directly to the Nation’s Capital for a Primetime showdown with the Washington Commanders. The Commanders rank 26th in touchdowns allowed this year and 26th in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. The defense is allowing 26.9 points per game (28th) and rank 24th in opponent redzone efficiency (61%).
Mike Sainristil for the Commanders has also been absolutely terrible in coverage. Sainristil has given up 5 touchdowns this year and ton of the work he does has been in the slot. The Commanders give up the 2nd most receiver production to the slot and Troy Franklin currently leads the Broncos in snaps from that slot.
The Commanders have also given up 3+ passing touchdowns in four of their last five games and Bo’s now had just one touchdown pass over the last two weeks. Nix has won seven straight games now but if this team wants to see success in the playoffs, we’ll need to start slingin’ some touchdowns again. This feels like the perfect tune up game against a Commanders defense that’s been lackluster to say the least.
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