Week 12 is here and the NFL Season is officially going by way too fast. I need it to slow down because I still have a ton of touchdowns I’d like to bet. That being said, let’s jump right into my favorites this week.
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Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown (+180) | BetOnline
We’re starting with a little bit of chalk and we’re fading this Bengals defense. Cincinnati ranks dead last in yards allowed to TEs, touchdowns allowed to the position and redzone targets allowed to the position. The 30-year old TE’s averaging 38.4 receiving yards per game, he’s got 34 catches and four of them have ended up in the endzone.
Henry’s second on this team in target share and this week he faces a Bengals defense that ranks 30th in opponent redzone efficiency, 31st in pass yards allowed and last in touchdowns allowed. Cincinnati is giving up 4.1 touchdowns per game and have allowed an opposing TE to score in six of their last eight games. The Bengals are allowing 80.2 yards per game to opposing TEs and Henry’s seen 6+ targets in two of his last three games.
Cincinnati’s LB crew is bad. Both Knight and Carter rank as the bottom two graded LBs this year, both with coverage grades below 50. These two have been getting torched all year. They gave up five combined touchdowns and let both Darnell Washington and Colston Loveland post career highs.
Third stringer Oren Burks hasn’t been any better, playing just 16 coverage snaps yet giving up two touchdowns of his own. All three LBs are allowing passer ratings above 110 when targeted and
George Pickens Anytime Touchdown (+170) | BetOnline
Despite this being a divisional game, despite what the Eagles games have looked like over the last two weeks; we’re getting a game total at 48. The Cowboys offense ranks 2nd in points scored and despite a 4-5-1 record, have put up points on some of the best defense around the league.
The Cowboys put up 40 points on the Packers, scored 24 on the road in Denver and put up 27 points against the 13th ranked Panthers defense. Big part of this offense has been the play of George Pickens. Pickens is 2nd in the NFL in endzone targets, 6th in redzone targets and has scored in 6 of the Cowboys 10 games this year.
Pickens has already set a career high fgor touchdowns this year and now he’s just adding to the tally. The Eagles secondary has been good over the last two weeks but if anyone knows this defense, it’s Dak Prescott. Prescott’s played the Eagles 14 times in the regular season, recording 24 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.
Dak’s thrown 2+ touchdowns in five of his last six against the Eagles, recording just one interception in that span. The Week 1 matchup was the first time since 2019 Prescott was held without a touchdown pass in a game against the Eagles and he’s thrown 2+ touchdown passes in six of seven career home games against Philly.
Prescott’s thrown 21 touchdown passes since the Week 1 matchup, 7 of which have gone to Pickens. Pickens has accounted for 33.3% of Prescott’s touchdowns this year and this week against Adoree Jackson, I’m expecting more of the same.
D.K. Metcalf Anytime Touchdown (+155) | BetOnline
This one really relies on the hope that Aaron Rodgers is in the game. All signs are pointing to him wanting to play this week. He’s been dealing with wrist issue in his non-throwing hand and was spotted at practice all week wearing a brace and taking snaps out of the shotgun. I’ll be the first to say it, if he sits I’d avoid Metcalf but with Rodgers back in Chicago, I’m taking a shot.
Rodgers is 24-5 all time against the Chicago Bears, averaging 240.2 pass yards per game with 64 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He hasn’t played them since leaving Green Bay and this week’s matchup could be his last at Soldier Field. Rodgers is 11-3 in his career at Soldier Field, averaging 249.9 yards per game with 26 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions.
If Rodgers is good to go, this Bears defense should provide ample opportunity for some big plays. The Bears rank 28th in touchdowns allowed this year, 31st in touchdowns given up to opposing wideouts and rank 26th in points allowed (26.4). Metcalf leads the Steelers in redzone target share with 22.5% of the targets. He’s also scored five touchdowns this year and currently leads the Steelers in touchdowns this year.
The Bears have a laundry list of injuries on the defense and have done a terrible job of pressuring opposing QBs. Rodgers is completing 74% of his passes when kept clean, with 15 of his 19 touchdown passes coming from a clean pocket. If the Steelers can keep Rodgers upright this week in Chicago look for him to get D.K. into the endzone for six.
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