Last week the touchdowns were good to us so let’s hope for more of the same. It’s Week 10 and I’m sitting here wondering how we got here so fast. The season’s flying by and we’ve only got so many more touchdowns to bet, let’s jump right into it.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown (+230)
This week the Bills are taking a little trip down to South Beach for a divisional battle with the Dolhpins. Miami ranks 24th in points allowed this year, .22nd in touchdowns allowed and 27th in touchdowns allowed to the TE position. Kincaid’s played in seven of the Bills eight games and leads the team in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
He’s averaging 58.7 receiving yards per game with four touchdowns on the year and he’s seeing a first read target share of 18.1% in the redzone. Miami ranks 32nd in yards per route run to the TE position and part of that’s because they blitz at the third highest rate in the NFL. High blitz rates usually leads to a higher frequency of short throws, usually to the big men lined up alongside the offensive line.
Kincaid ranks 6th among TEs in yards per route run against the blitz and all three of these Miami LBs have struggled in coverage this year. All three have coverage grades below 50, allowing catch rates over 80% and passer ratings over 109 when targeted. All three starters have given up a touchdown and this week’s matchup with Kincaid doesn’t get any easier.
Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown (+165)
Big man Mark Andrews had two touchdowns last week in Lamar Jackson’s return to the field and Ravens’ fans couldn’t be happier. Lamar had 204 yards through the air in his first game back, but more importantly four passing touchdowns to boot. The Ravens beatdown the Dolphins and he only threw the ball 23 times.
This week the Ravens are going into Minnesota for their second straight road game and they can’t afford to take a loss if they have any hope to win this division. Minnesota ranks 20th in points allowed this year, 17th in touchdowns allowed and 21st in touchdowns allowed to TEs. The Vikings are 5th in opponent redzone efficiency and have done a great job of limiting opponents through the air once they get within 20 yards.
That being said, Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson have been one of the most electric duos in the NFL when you get inside the 20-yard line. This year Andrews is seeing a 16.3% target share, but that jumps to 23.1% in the redzone. In games with Lamar under center, Andrews redzone target share jumps to 29%. He’s seeing a 45.5% first read target share in the redzone, fourth highest in the NFL.
Last week the Ravens cashed in all three of their redzone trips, four if you include Andrews’ touchdown from 20 yards out. Lamar threw four touchdowns, three coming from within 20 yards and Mark Andrews was the first read on 66.7% of his passes in the redzone. He’s got two games with two touchdowns now and this week against the Vikings I’m expecting at least one.
Andrews making his Mark 🔜 pic.twitter.com/nwG3xzRDbz
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) November 7, 2025
Tez Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+260)
The New England Patriots might be back, but when you look at the quality of opponent they’ve faced so far it makes you think twice. The Patriots have played just three teams with winning records and one of those teams was the Carolina Panthers.
The Patriots are allowing opponents to convert 75% of their redzone drives into touchdowns and that’s the type of soft defense the Buccaneers would love to see. Tampa ranks 26th in redzone efficiency and with the loss of Mike Evans for the year and Bucky Irving still on the shelf, they’ll need all the help they can get.
Tez Johnson’s rookie year’s been overshadowed a bit by his teammate Emeka Egbuka, but with all the injuries to the Buccs receiver room; Tez stepped up. Since Week 5, Tez is the Buccaneers top graded receiver, seeing 20 targets for for 205 yards and two touchdowns. He’s also tied with Egbuka with five targets of 20+ yards and Baker’s recorded a passer rating of 136.5 when targeting him.
New England ranks 29th in deep completions allowed, 31st in opponent redzone successful pass plays, 32nd in opponent redzone efficiency and have given up 15 touchdowns threw the air; 10 to opposing wideouts (23rd). Tez has big play ability but his size and route running make him a consistent threat in the redzone too. Look for him to have an impact this week with both Godwin and Evans on the sidelines.
Holy cow!!! Tez Johnson with an insane TD grab — the first of his career — and the celebration was outstanding. pic.twitter.com/AOxeZ46Lv0 https://t.co/WJMTsHJBkK
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 12, 2025
Looking for More?
More NFL News
NFL Betting News
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings Preview & Predictions (12/14)
NFL Betting News
Chasing Six | NFL Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on ‘X’ @VSaaauce for all my picks and sports takes you didn’t ask for! Follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks, and news!
Looking for a great promo for a new sportsbook? Check out our reviews of the best sportsbooks.