The Chiefs are rolling into this week’s matchup off back to back losses and desperate to get back in the win column. The Chargers are coming in off back to back wins and looking to sweep the season series. Lots to talk about, let’s jump right into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, Missouri
- Date: Sunday, December 14th, 2025
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- San Diego Chargers: Justin Herbert (11-6; 2024 – 227.6 YPG | 23 TD | 3 INT)
- Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (15-1; 2024 – 245.5 YPG | 26 TD | 11 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Herbie Fully Loaded
Justin Herbert and the Chargers have won 9 of their 13 games so far this year. The offense ranks 17th in points scored, 25th in redzone efficiency, 17th in pass yards and 19th in yards per play. The offensive line play has been some of the worst we’ve seen among all 32 teams this year. The Chargers are missing countless names up front and because of it, Herbert’s been sacked 45 times; third most this year.
Los Angeles is giving up a 3.6 sacks per game, allowing a sack on 9% of Herbert’s drop backs and giving up the highest pressure rate on the year. This is why they rank 17th in points and we’ve seen this air attack struggle. Herbert’s averaging just 229.3 pass yards per game, just slightly better than the 227.6 mark he finished with last year.
Last year it was more of the same, he had no time in the pocket and the Chargers were giving up a ton of pressure. Herbert was throwing the ball less but was still sacked 45 times in 17 games. This year he’s already been sacked 45 times and the Chargers still have 4-games left. It’s imperative the Chargers keep their guy healthy as we get closer to the playoffs0, but the question is can they?
Defensively the Chargers have been elite. They rank 9th in points allowed, 4th in opponent third down conversion rate, 5th in passing yards allowed and 8th in opponent yards per play. The team’s averaging 2.7 sacks per game (9th) and that’s after the departure of their All-Pro DE, Joey Bosa. Last week we saw the Chargers’ defense pick Hurts off four times, force one fumble and win their team the game.
Chiefs, Dead.
While technically, the Chiefs haven’t been eliminated from the playoffs; it’s highly unlikely we see this team compete for another Lombardi this year. The offense is averaging 24.2 points per game (11th) but at times it’s tough to watch. Last week the Chiefs couldn’t get anything going against the Houston Texans.
In a must win game, the Chiefs scored just 10 points, finished with less than 300 total yards of offense and Mahomes threw three interceptions. One of the interceptions came late in the game on a tipped ball of the hands of Travis Kelce. Kelce’s been plagued by drops this year, tied for 1st among TEs and third among all pass catchers.
Mahomes has been good this year. He’s completing 63.1% of his passes for 261.4 pass yards per game with 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The Chiefs run game has been non-existent. The team ranks 17th in rush yards per game and a big chunk of those yards are coming directly from Mahomes.
Kareem Hunt leads the Chiefs in rush yards with 545, averaging just 41.9 per game and 3.8 yards per carry. Mahomes is averaging 31.3 rush yards per game and it’s another big reason the Chiefs offense has struggled. Defensively, this might be the best defense Mahomes has ever played with. They rank 7th in points allowed, 10th in opponent redzone efficiency and 21st in opponent yards per play.
Last week the defense had given up just 10 points till late in the fourth quarter. That’s when we saw Andy Reid go for it on 4th and short from their own 30-yard line. The Chiefs would turn it over on downs and the Texans scored just six plays later. This week mark’s the second meeting between these two teams and I know the Chiefs are not looking to get swept.
Sunday’s Best Bets
Patrick Mahomes o19.5 Rushing Yards (-114) | Lucky Rebel
I’m going right back to Mahomes at a lower line this week. This feels a little bit trappy but with Mahomes willingness to scramble this year, the line feels too low. Mahomes is averaging 31.1 rush yards per game this year and he’s cleared this line in 9 of his 13 games.
I understand Mahomes has been dealing with a bit of knee issue but last week we saw the Chiefs QB run for 59 yards on 7 rushing attempt; all QB scrambles. This week the Chiefs face off with a Chargers defense that ranks top 10 in sacks and gives up the 17th most rush yards to opposing QBs.
The Chargers secondary has also been one of the best in the league this year. Holding opposing teams to just 173.2 pass yards per game, 5th best in the NFL. The Chiefs problems this year stem from dropped balls, receivers missing games and an offensive line that can’t protect Mahomes. He’s been sacked 29 times already this year and with 4 games remaining, could set a career high in sacks taken.
Mahomes also leads the league in scrambles this year with 50 scrambles for a total of 405 yards; averaging 8.1 yards per scramble. The Chargers defense hasn’t faced a real threat to run the ball over the last few weeks, but going back to their games against Patty, Nix, Dart and Daniels; all four cleared this mark.
Patty ran 6 times for 57 yards in their Week 1 matchup and this week with their backs against the wall, I’m expecting him to leave it all out on the field.
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