Carolina Panthers vs Buffalo Bills
Back in August, if I had told you that heading into this Week 8 matchup between the Bills and Panthers, Carolina would be riding a three-game win streak while Buffalo was trying to avoid a third straight loss – would you have believed me? Probably not. But that’s the beauty and unpredictability of the NFL.
Oddsmakers suggest the Panthers’ run may come to an end, as they enter this game catching +7.5 points. The total sits between 45.5 and 46.5.
So how should we approach this one? I’ll break it down with my Carolina Panthers vs. Buffalo Bills preview and bets.
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Carolina Panthers vs Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Insights
Can Rico Dowdle keep his dominance going this Sunday against Buffalo?
Panthers vs Bills Preview
Buffalo is coming off a much-needed early bye week following back-to-back losses to the Patriots (23-20) and Falcons (24-14). The Bills now sit at 4-2, second in the AFC East behind the 5-2 Patriots.
The biggest issue in those losses has been their lack of offensive production. I know what you’re thinking, “well, duh,” but more specifically, they were held to 20 points or fewer in both games. In all four of their wins, they’ve scored at least 30. They’ve beaten Baltimore 41-40, the Jets 30-10, the Dolphins 31-21, and the Saints 31-19.
Can Buffalo put up another 30-point performance against this red-hot Panthers team? Absolutely. Carolina’s defensive metrics look solid on paper, but they’ve benefited from a soft schedule. They rank second in success rate allowed, yet just 17th in overall EPA per play allowed – a clear sign of inconsistency.
Their results back that up. The Panthers surrendered 26 points to the Jaguars, 27 to the Cardinals, 42 to the Patriots, 24 to the Dolphins, and 27 to the Cowboys. Their lone defensive highlights consist of a shutout against Atlanta, an obvious aberration, and limiting the Jets, arguably the worst offense in football led by Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor, to six points. Those two outliers have skewed their numbers more positively than they should be.
Don’t be tricked – in their first two games, they still gave up 26-plus points to low-tier quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence and Kyler Murray. I mean, what are we talking about here?
Nothing has truly changed with Carolina, outside of maybe Bryce Young taking a slight step forward. He still has plenty of flaws, and the defense is still an issue. Don’t let their three-game win streak against the bottom of the NFL barrel fool you – the Dolphins and Jets won’t have their current head coaches by next season, and the Cowboys have the league’s worst defense.
Buffalo’s offense has still been very efficient, gaining the third-most yards per play (6.0), and ranking fifth in both EPA per play and success rate. I expect a big effort from Josh Allen and company on Sunday, but more on that in a bit.
Defensively, the Bills have taken plenty of criticism, and while some of it is justified, I don’t think it’s fair to label this group as one of the league’s most vulnerable just yet. Outside of their opener against one of the NFL’s best offenses in Baltimore, when Lamar Jackson was still healthy, the defense has actually performed fairly well.
They rank 22nd in EPA per play, but also 13th in success rate and 11th in both dropback EPA and success rate allowed. Their real issues come against the run. Buffalo allows the most yards per carry in the league at 5.8 and ranks 29th in rush EPA and 25th in rush success rate allowed. They’re also giving up 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game, the second most in the NFL.
That could be a problem this week facing one of the hottest running backs in football, Rico Dowdle. During this three-game win streak, Dowdle has been on a tear, carrying the ball 70 times for 468 yards – an average of 156 yards per game and 6.7 yards per carry. He ran for over 200 yards against the Dolphins and more than 180 versus Dallas. Last week against the Jets, he came back to earth with 79 yards on 17 carries, but still averaged 4.6 yards per attempt. The lower yardage was largely due to him splitting work with Chuba Hubbard, who returned from a two-game absence with a calf injury and gained just 31 yards on 14 attempts. Unless the Panthers are complete fools, Dowdle should continue to get the bulk of the touches.
Despite Dowdle’s recent success, the betting market has adjusted his rushing prop significantly, setting it at just 48.5 yards. Every opposing running back with at least 11 carries against Buffalo has surpassed that mark, averaging 107.2 yards per game. That looks like a major edge on paper, but it’s important to factor in the likelihood that the Panthers fall behind early and abandon the run as they try to keep the game within reach.
Carolina vs Buffalo Picks
Where I see the best avenue for a play is with the Bills’ team total. You can find it listed at 26.5, though you’ll need to lay a bit of juice on the over, around -127 is the lowest odds I’ve seen. Most books are dealing 27.5, but it’s worth locking in the lower mark since 27 is a key number for team totals.
Realistically, I expect Buffalo to land closer to 30 points, but it’s crucial to grab the best number available in case they finish at 27. I’m confident they get near that 30 mark because, as we covered earlier, this offense has been highly efficient. The Bills rank third in yards per play at 6.0 and fifth in both EPA per play and success rate. They’re also facing an overrated Carolina defense that, outside of a couple of anomalies, has been repeatedly exposed. In addition, this Bills team is coming off a bye week, giving them extra time to prepare and an even bigger chip on their shoulder as they look to avoid a three-game losing streak. I don’t expect Buffalo to mess around here; they should take care of business on offense and do so in convincing fashion.
Best Bet: Bills Team Total Over 26.5 (-127)
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