Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons: Earlier this week on our show Betspresso, we rolled out a segment called “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly,” where the task was to pick a team for each category.
As luck would have it, two of the three teams I chose are squaring off in this matchup. I’m sure you can guess which team belongs where. Either way, I’ll break it all down below with my Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons picks and predictions.
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Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Insights
Bryce Young and the Panthers’ struggles continue two weeks into the season
The Good: No surprise here – the Falcons were my pick for “The Good” category. This team could very easily be 2-0 if not for a missed Younghoe Koo kick, but they rebounded in a big way with a convincing 22-6 win on Sunday Night Football against the Vikings.
Michael Penix Jr. didn’t need to put up gaudy numbers against Brian Flores’ defense, because Bijan Robinson completely took over. The second-year back ripped off 143 yards on 22 carries (6.5 YPC), setting the tone for the offense. Penix played his role efficiently, though, completing 13 of 21 passes for 135 yards with no turnovers, consistently putting Atlanta in position to score. That allowed Koo’s replacement, Parker Romo, to step up and drill all five of his field-goal attempts.
Defensively, the Falcons smothered Minnesota. They forced rookie J.J. McCarthy into two interceptions and held him to just 11 completions on 21 attempts. The Vikings’ ground game wasn’t much better, managing only 78 yards on 19 carries.
Coach Raheem Morris has a deep arsenal at his disposal, and it’s becoming clear this Falcons squad is shaping up to be one of the more well-rounded units in the league.
The Ugly: I didn’t even consider the Panthers for “The Bad” – they’ve already fallen past that tier.
Sure, they nearly stormed back against the Cardinals after trailing 27-3, but that spoke more to Arizona’s collapse than Carolina’s competence.
The numbers paint a bleak picture. Defensively, the Panthers rank 24th in EPA per play allowed and 27th in yards per play allowed (6.0). Offensively, they aren’t much better, sitting 23rd in EPA per play.
And then there’s Bryce Young. He ranks 31st in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) and 26th in EPA per play among quarterbacks. Each week it becomes harder to argue that he belongs as a starting QB in this league.
Betting Lines: Believe it or not, when odds first dropped back in May, a couple of sportsbooks actually had the Panthers as 1.5-point favorites, with the total set at 46.5.
Fast forward to now, and the market has corrected itself in a big way. Atlanta is currently a 4.5-point road favorite, while the total has dipped to 43.5.
That early pricing was largely a reflection of Carolina’s somewhat competitive finish to last season. But as this year has quickly reminded us, the Panthers remain one of the league’s bottom-tier teams, making this dramatic line shift more than justified.
Panthers vs Falcons Picks & Predictions: Unsurprisingly, Bijan Robinson is projected for a monster game – and the books have priced his props accordingly.
But the real value lies with his running mate, Tyler Allgeier. Calling him a “backup” doesn’t quite do him justice; he’s logged double-digit carries in both games so far. In Week 1 against Tampa Bay, he rushed 10 times for 24 yards, and in Week 2 he broke through with 16 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota.
Allgeier should see similar usage here against a Panthers defense that ranks 21st in EPA per play against the run and is giving up 5.2 yards per carry. If Atlanta grabs control of this game, expect them to lean on Allgeier to salt away the clock and keep Robinson fresh.
History also points in his favor. Last season, Allgeier gashed Carolina for 157 yards on 27 carries across two meetings, averaging 5.8 yards per attempt and clearing his current prop line of 39.5 yards in both games.
Expect him to carve out another productive day against Carolina’s soft run defense.
Play: Tyler Allgeier Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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