Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Preview & Picks (12/7): Will Burrow get Buried?

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Get ready for this huge AFC showdown with our Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals preview and picks in NFL Week 14.

Both the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals are coming off massive wins in NFL Week 13 – and now they have a chance to add another to their resume when they meet this Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET in Orchard Park, New York.

In the battle between Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, oddsmakers have the former as a 5.5-point favorite at home, with the total hanging around 53.

How do these teams stack up against one another, and how should you approach this from a betting perspective? I’ll break it all down in my Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals preview and picks.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.

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Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Preview & Picks

Get ready for this huge AFC showdown with our Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals preview and picks in NFL Week 14.

Can Josh Allen keep his offense in a groove against the worst defense in the NFL?

Bills vs Bengals Preview 

Entering this NFL Week 14 showdown, this game is crucial for both teams’ playoff lives. The Bills currently sit in the 7th seed with an 8-4 record. The Chargers and Colts share the same record but hold the spots ahead of Buffalo due to tiebreakers. We can feel fairly confident that Buffalo’s chances to win the AFC East are minimal, as the Patriots sit atop the division at 11-2.

As for Cincinnati, Joe Burrow’s return on Thanksgiving sparked an outright win as a touchdown underdog against their division rival, the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals are now 4-8, just a couple of wins back from the top spot in the AFC North. Realistically, that’s going to have to be their path to the postseason, considering the 7th seed currently belongs to the Bills – who have four more wins than them.

In Burrow’s return last week, he completed 24 of 46 passes (52.2%) for 261 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers. In the Bengals’ 32-14 win, running back Chase Brown turned in one of his better efforts of the season, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and finishing with 78 rushing yards. He’s a player who has been desperate to get going this year – much like the entire Cincinnati defense, which has been one of the worst units in the NFL – but they stepped up in a major way by holding Baltimore to 14 points and forcing five turnovers. It was by far the most impressive performance from the Bengals this season.

 

To paint a clearer picture of Burrow’s performance, it’s worth looking at his advanced metrics compared to other quarterbacks in Week 13. Among 32 qualified QBs, Burrow finished 11th in EPA/play, but just 26th in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) and 23rd in success rate.

It was his first game back, and he did what he needed to do. He avoided the costly turnovers that could’ve sunk Cincinnati and moved the ball when necessary. But let’s be honest: a major reason the Bengals won was their defense – and the ineptitude of Baltimore’s offense.

Will one game be enough to get Burrow back to the stellar level we’re used to seeing?

We’ll find out as he faces a Buffalo defense that ranks 14th in EPA/play and 10th in success rate. Their defense is fascinating – they have both a clear strength and glaring weakness throughout this unit. 

Against the pass, they’ve been excellent. Buffalo allows the fewest passing yards per game (163.2), ranks third in dropback success rate, and sits fourth in both dropback EPA and opponent completion percentage (59.5%).

Against the run…it’s a very different story. The Bills allow the second-most yards per carry in the league (5.2) and rank 30th in rush EPA and 25th in rush success rate allowed.

Perhaps another strong outing from Chase Brown is in order.

It will be interesting to see how the Bengals choose to attack this Bills defense. With Joe Burrow back under center and surrounded by their deep receiver group, it’s hard not to rely on the passing game. But Cincinnati may also want to shorten the contest by keeping the ball away from Josh Allen, who will be facing a vulnerable Bengals defense. That could lead to a more run-heavy approach early to control the tempo and time of possession.

The vulnerable defense that Allen will face ranks dead last in both EPA/play and success rate – so calling them “vulnerable” might actually be generous. It’s unreasonable to expect another strong outing from Cincinnati’s defense. Holding the Ravens to 14 points was an aberration, driven far more by Baltimore shooting itself in the foot than by anything the Bengals did defensively. Isaiah Likely’s fumble into the end zone flipped the entire game, and Lamar Jackson’s costly interception only made matters worse.

Josh Allen, meanwhile, has been outstanding this season. Among 35 qualified quarterbacks, he ranks fourth in EPA/play, seventh in success rate, and 11th in CPOE.

And unlike Buffalo, there isn’t a clear strength anywhere in this Cincinnati defense – they just flat-out stink in every facet.

Buffalo vs Cincinnati Picks

I’ve been a big believer in this Bills team despite their struggles this year. I still view them as the top team in the AFC, even though they’re barely hanging on to the 7th seed in the playoff race.

On the other side, I fully respect this Bengals offense and understand the impact Joe Burrow’s return brings. In fact, I took the points with Cincinnati last week on Thanksgiving.

However, they won’t be able to replicate that performance this week in Buffalo.

The Bills are coming off a massive win of their own and put together a complete defensive effort that should carry momentum into this matchup. You could say the same for the Bengals’ defense, but the difference is that there are essentially no real strengths within that group. A large part of their success last week stemmed from Baltimore’s mistakes more than anything Cincinnati did. 

This is also a tough stretch for Burrow and company. They’re facing two quality, formidable opponents in back-to-back weeks – both on the road.

Cincinnati’s defensive issues are bound to resurface, and Josh Allen should be able to carve them up through the air and with his mobility. Not to mention James Cook, who could easily push for 100 rushing yards against one of the worst run defenses in the league. Cook is coming off a 144-yard performance in Pittsburgh, where the Bills’ backfield made history with 249 total rushing yards – the most ever by a visiting team at Acrisure Stadium. Allen also set a milestone, surpassing Cam Newton for the most rushing touchdowns (76) by a quarterback in NFL history.

 

Buffalo will not make the same mistakes that Baltimore did. The Bills should fully control this game on the ground while still passing efficiently when needed. On the flip side, it’s tough to assume Burrow’s passing production improves meaningfully against one of the better secondaries in the NFL. And even if Cincinnati tries to lean on the ground game against Buffalo’s weaker run defense, it’s unlikely to sustain. Chase Brown has shown gradual improvement, but he’s not the type of back who can take over a game the way James Cook can.

Since we’re getting this under the key numbers of 7 and 6, I see this as a viable play on the home favorite.

Best Bet: Bills -5.5 (-110)

NFL Record: 72-58-1 (+5.06 units)

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