It’s Monday Night and we’ve got a double header on the docket. Let’s kick it off with the Texans hosting Baker Mayfield and the red hot Buccaneers. Plenty of big names on both teams and on both sides of the ball, let’s jump right into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: NRG Stadium; Houston, Texas
- Date: Monday, September 15th, 2025
- Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield (10-7; 2024 – 264.7 YPG | 41 TD | 16 INT)
- Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud (10-7; 2024 – 219.2 YPG | 20 TD | 12 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
The Kid Can Ball
Week 1 may have witnessed the single greatest rookie wide receiver debut in NFL History. Rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka saw six targets in his debut, recorded four receptions, 67 receiving yards and TWO touchdowns; the second score being the eventual game winner. Egbuka was on the field for 93% of the team’s offensive snaps, higher than even the team’s WR1, Mike Evans (83%).
Tampa recorded just 260 total yards of offense in Week 1, 159 yards through the air and 101 yards on the ground. The Falcons finished the game with more total yards, first downs, converted three of four fourth down tries and won the time of possession battle by almost 10 minutes. Despite all of that, the Buccaneers still walked away with the 3-point win. It wasn’t glamorous, but Baker got the job done when it mattered most.
With just over two minutes left, Baker took five plays, marched his team 48-yards and threw the game winning touchdown to rookie Egbuka with just a minute left. The Falcons got within field goal range, Koo missed a 44-yarder and Tampa walked away victorious. Not pretty, but undefeated all the same.
Sophomore Slump or Reality?
C.J. Stroud had one of the most memorable rookie seasons in recent memory. Stroud averaged 273.9 pass yards per game in his rookie year, threw 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The former #2 overall pick lead his team to a 10-win season and even playoff win against the Cleveland Browns.
Last year Stroud averaged 219.2 pass yards per game and threw just 20 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. Despite the lesser numbers, the Texans still won 10 games and finished the year with a playoff win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Stroud’s got some loud critics but for a kid going into his third year, 20 wins and two playoff wins is pretty damn good.
Unfortunately for Stroud, the rest of this offense still isn’t fully healthy. Nico Collins is back in the lineup, but Tank Dell remains out for the season and reports on Joe Mixon have been murky with no real date for his return to the field. Houston’s offensive struggles showed early in Week 1, the team finished with just 265 total yards of offense and converted just two of their nine third downs (22%). Houston made it to the red zone just once against the Rams in Week 1 and failed to come away with any points.
Monday Night’s Best Bets
Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown (+126)
This is a price I just can’t pass up. The Buccaneers had the 4th highest scoring offense 2024 and are bringing most, if not all of their team. Week 1 saw the Buccaneers only put up 23 points and struggle to move the ball, but that’s to be expected with a new offensive coordinator.
The Buccs elevated Josh Gizzard after the departure of Liam Coen in the off-season and as a first time OC, there’s bound to be some issues. One thing Tampa can lean on his second year running back, Bucky Irving. Irving saw 76% of the team’s offensive snaps, carried the ball 14 times and caught all four of his targets for just eight yards. Irving saw 18 of the 22 running back touches in this game and should be in bound for the same type of workload moving forward.
Tampa finished with just one redzone chance in Week 1 and I expect that to change this week. Both Derek Stingley Jr. and CJ Gardener-Johnson struggled in Week 1 with the Rams pass attack. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combined for 14 catches and 181 receiving yards and now the Texans face an air attack that includes Mike Evans and the hot new rookie Emeka Egbuka.
The Buccs should see plenty of red zone opportunities tonight and look for Bucky to punch one for six when they do.
Buccaneers vs. Texans u42.5 (-110)
Primetime Unders, that’s what we’re rooting for tonight. The Texans offense looks bad, Nick Chubb is their starting running back and outside of Nico Collins, they’ve got limited options at receiver. Houstons’ offensive line ranked 32nd according to PFF and after Week 1 it was clear why. The Texans gave up three sacks last week, CJ hit the ground four times and the Rams only blitzed him six times.
Stroud saw an average of just 2.3 seconds in the pocket and it’s why we saw this Houston team struggle to put up points. For Tampa it’s their new offensive coordinator. Liam Coen had this offense firing on all cylinders last year, scoring fewer than 20 points just once the entire season. Last week we saw Tampa’s inability to move the ball and hit those big plays, now they play in their second straight road game to start the season and do it against a much tougher Houston defense.
Lastly, let’s talk about the line movement. With 82% of the handle on the over, 77% of bets on the over; this line has moved down 2-points since opening. Over the weekend after seeing one of the highest scoring Sunday’s we’ve ever seen, the line hasn’t budged. Feels like the Vegas Oddsmakers are leaning towards the under in this primetime matchup.
Tonight we root for defense.
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