We’ve got the Buffalo Bills coming home after an ugly loss to the Miami Dolphins, this week with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the docket. Big inter-conference matchup at Higmark Stadium this week, let’s jump right into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Highmark Stadium; Orchard Park, New York
- Date: Sunday, November 16th, 2025
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield (10-7; 2024 – 264.7 YPG | 41 TD | 16 INT)
- Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (13-4; 2024 – 219.5 YPG | 28 TD | 6 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Pirates Hate to Lose
The Buccaneers have lost just three games this year and after every single one, they’ve responded in a huge way. After their loss to the Eagles early in the season, they responded by putting up 38 points on the Seahawks and winning a 38-35 shootout. After their loss to the Lions on Monday Night Football, the Buccaneers responded with a 23-3 divisional beat down against the Saints.
Tampa Bay’s lost a ton of bodies on both sides of the ball this year but as long as Baker Mayfield’s under center, this team’s got a chance to win games. Mayfield threw for 273 yards last week, three touchdowns and finished with a passer rating of 106.1. Baker outplayed Maye and if not for TWO, 50+ yard touchdown runs by Henderson, they probably walk away with the win.
This week Tampa will head on the road, taking a trip to Highmark Stadium where temperatures are looking to be in the low 40s. Baker’s been great on the road this year, completing 64% of his passes with eight touchdowns and just one interception. The problem is the Buccaneers haven’t played a game in the cold yet.
Despite missing both their top two wideouts, the Buccaneers offense ranks 11th in points scored, 14th in passing yards and 2nd in turnovers. The Buccaneers defense has 13 total takeaways and Tampa Bay ranks 2nd in turnover differential. It’s helped lead to some short fields for the offense and helped put points on the board for Tampa.
Ugly, spelled B-I-L-L-S
The Buffalo Bills looked like a completely different team last week in Miami. Buffalo didn’t score a single point until the 4th quarter of their game with the Dolphins, finishing with just 13 total points. Miami would win the game by three scores and Josh Allen had his third game this year with multiple turnovers.
The Bills defense ranks 11th in points allowed this year but have really struggled against the run. Buffalo ranks 30th in rush yards allowed this year and they just haven’t had an answer for opposing running backs. De’Veon Achane ran for 174 yards, 2 touchdowns and even had 51 yards through the air last week against this same defense.
Offensively the Bills rank 7th in points, 1st in rush yards, 3rd in yards per play, 4th in first downs and 5th in third down conversion rate. Buffalo’s converting 65.8% of their redzone trips into touchdowns (7th) and Josh Allen’s been a big reason why. Allen’s throwing for 237.7 pass yards per game and he’s thrown 15 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. He’s also averaging 34.6 yards per game on the ground and has seven touchdowns with his legs.
Sunday’s Best Bets
Sean Tucker o39.5 Rushing Yards (-120) | BetOnline
This one’s a little strange, but with how bad this Buffalo run defense has been I’m finding a way to capitalize. With Bucky Irving out of the lineup, Rachaad White’s turned into this team’s top back. He’s cleared 45 rush yards just once this year, averaging an abysmal 3.4 yards per carry across his five starts.
In Tampa Bay’s last two games, we’ve seen the team’s 3rd string back (now 2nd), Sean Tucker see an increase in offensive snaps. Tucker’s seen over 32% snap share in back to back games and has basically split the designed carries with White in both games. In their Week 8 matchup with New Orleans, we saw White get 44.8% of the designed runs, while Tucker got 41.4%. Last week we saw it move to 47.6% for White, 42.9% for Tucker.
Over their last two games, Tucker’s had 21 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown; averaging 4.5 yards per carry. White’s had 23 carries for 73 yards and no scores; averaging 3.2 yard per carry. Not only has Tucker been more productive, but he’s also got got 4 runs of 10+ yards; White’s got 0. Tucker averages 3.7 yards before contact, per carry; White averages 2.2.
Outside of pass catching, Tucker has looked like the superior back. The Bills are dead last in opponent yards per carry, allowing 5.5 yards per rush attempt and rank 29th in rush yards allowed to RBs.
Lastly, this week’s weather in Orchard Park’s beginning to make me feel like both teams will need to move the ball on the ground. Temperatures will be in the low 40s, with winds blowing over 20 miles per hour. It’s looking like we’ll see some rain/snow type mix out on the field and it’s all starting to feel like an old school type football game. Running through the tackles and picking up yards the hard way.
That’s exactly what Tucker does best. This week’s the Sean Tucker breakout game.
For 2 straight games now, Sean Tucker has ended up the Bucs’ leading rusher, outproducing his backfield mate, Rachaad White, on the ground.
Against the Patriots, Tucker had 53 rushing yards on 9 carries.
While White is the better receiver of the 2, Tucker is making his case as… pic.twitter.com/GSeCYTi6Wc
— Charles “Chux” Maranan (@ChuxMaranan) November 12, 2025
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