Bills vs. Texans | NFL Week 12 Breakdown & Best Bets: Thursday Night Football

Josh Allen

Big Thursday Night matchup down in Houston this week as the Treacherous Twins, Will Anderson Jr. and Dannielle Hunter, welcome Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills to NRG Stadium. Let’s jump right into this one.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.

You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.

Game Information

Houston Texans

Matchup Information

  • Location: NRG Stadium; Houston, Texas
  • Date: Thursday, November 20th, 2025
  • Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST

Quarterback Matchup

  • Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (13-4; 2024 – 219.5 YPG | 28 TD | 6 INT)
  • Houston Texans: Davis Mills (2024 – n/a)

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

4.8/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
55% Welcome Bonus w/ code BNBOL55
See our review »
Up to $250 in Free Bets + 100 Spins
$10 Cash Bonus w/ Code BNEWS
Fastest Payouts

Analysis & Breakdown

Houston Texans

Treacherous Twins

The Houston Texans have two of the scariest football players, currently playing football. Will Anderson Jr. and Dannielle Hunter have terrorized opposing Quarterbacks this year and this Texans’ pass rush has been the anchor of this #1 ranked defense. Houston ranks #1 in points allowed (16.3), 2nd in opponent first downs, 3rd in opponent pass yards and 3rd in opponent rush yards per game.

The Texans rank 14th in sacks this year but the combination of Hunter/Anderson Jr. have combined for 17 of the teams 25 sacks. Both players have pass rush win rates of 24% or higher, they’ve combined for 102 total QB pressures and 21 tackles for a loss. These two have been at the center of this defense all year and this week with Josh Allen in town, they’ll need the Treacherous Twins to step up.

Offensively, the Texans haven’t been great. The team ranks 21st in points this year, 16th in pass yards and 23rd in rush yards. Houston will have Davis Mills under center once again this week while C.J. Stroud still makes his way back from a concussion. Mills is now 2-0 as a starter, throwing for a combined 566 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Nico Collins has 16 catches, 228 yards and 1 touchdown in these two starts and it looks like the two are really starting to develop a connection.

Defense, Optional

Buffalo’s won 7 of their first 10 games this year, averaging 29.2 points per game (4th) and somehow still sit 2nd in the AFC East. The Bills defense has been the team’s biggest issue, mainly their run defense. Buffalo ranks 31st in rush yards allowed but 2nd in pass yards allowed. The team’s done a much better job defending the pass, but some of that’s just because of how BAD they’ve been against the run.

The Bills have allowed 3 of the last 5 opposing RB1’s to eclipse the 100-yard mark and rank 31st in opponent yards per carry (5.1). Buffalo’s given up a touchdown to an opposing RB in 9 of their 10 games this year, giving up eight total touchdowns to RBs in their last five games.

The team’s offense has been fantastic. Josh Allen’s coming off a six touchdown game; three through the air and three on the ground. The Bills’ offense ranks 1st in rush yards, 2nd in yards per play, 8th in pass yards and 5th in redzone efficiency. The offense is converting 67% of their redzone trips into touchdowns and big reason why is the guy they’ve got under center.

Whether it’s with his arm or with his legs; Josh Allen puts up a ton of points.

Thursday Night’s Best Bets

Josh Allen 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110) | BetOnline

Josh Allen

Allen’s averaging 35.1 rush yards per game this year and ranks 5th in QB scramble rate. Among QBs, the NFL’s reining MVP ranks 4th in scramble yards, 2nd in rush yards and averages 5.4 yards per carry. This Texans defense is tough, both through the air and against the run. With Houston ranking 4th in pressure rate, I’m expecting Allen to get out towards the edge and pick up some key yards with his legs.

The Bills will also be without Allen’s favorite target once again this week, Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid’s set to miss his third game of the year and Allen’s finished with 40+ yards on the ground in both prior games. Going back to last year, in games without Kincaid, Allen averages 39.5 rush yards per game and he’s cleared this line in four of the six games.

The Texans rank 3rd in rush yards allowed this year but 18th in rush yards allowed to opposing QBs. Houston has faced a real threat on the ground at the QB spot this year but they have given up 30+ yards to opposing QBs in three straight games now.

4.8/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
55% Welcome Bonus w/ code BNBOL55
See our review »
Up to $250 in Free Bets + 100 Spins
$10 Cash Bonus w/ Code BNEWS
Fastest Payouts

Looking for More

Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly

Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER

Follow me on ‘X’ @VSaaauce for all my picks and sports takes you didn’t ask for! Follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks, and news!

Looking for a great promo for a new sportsbook? Check out our reviews of the best sportsbooks.