This week’s matchup between the Packers and Bears will determine top dog in the NFC North. This will be the first of two meetings in the span of three weeks, between the two rivals. With so much on the line this year, let’s jump right into this Bears/Packers matchup.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Lambeau Field; Green Bay, Wisconsin
- Date: Sunday, December 7th, 2025
- Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams (5-12; 2024 – 208.3 YPG | 20 TD | 6 INT)
- Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love (9-6; 2024 – 225.9 YPG | 25 TD | 11 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Toyotathon
Yeah, we’re going to take a second and talk about Toyotathon. Jordan Love during Toyotathon started as a funny joke and it’s now evolved into him just going bonkers after Week 11. In games coming during Week 11 or later, Love is completing 67.2% of his passes, has 34 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and a passer rating of 110.5. He’s also gone 14-5 in these games and his TD/INT ratio is the best ever, after Week 10.
Last week Love became the winningest Packers QB ever on Thanksgiving Day and he’s only in Year 3 as a starter. He’s 10th in passing yards, 7th in touchdown passes, 5th in completion percentage over expectation, 8th in average depth of target and is throwing deep at the 4th highest rate. He’s doing all of this without his top two wide receivers for a majority of the year, Tucker Kraft out for the season and the rookie WR they drafted in the 1st round on the sidelines.
The Packers offense is finally starting to come alive, but this defense has been here from the beginning. Green Bay ranks 6th in points allowed, 6th in opponent first downs, 6th in opponent pass yards and 5th in opponent yards per play.
The Micah Parsons trade has paid dividends for the Pack. He’s played in all 12 games and he’s already got 12.5 sacks. He’s on track to set a career high in sacks this year, this coming right after he became the first player ever to record 12+ sacks in his first five years in the NFL. Big portion of Micah’s sacks have come in the fourth quarter or late in games. Most have directly lead to Ws in the win column.
Chi City Chain Snatchers
Caleb Williams and the Bears are top dogs in the NFC. The entire city of Chicago is going up after a huge win over the Philadelphia Eagles and Head Coach Ben Johnson has to be the most loved man in Illinois. The Bears have won 9 of the first 12 games under their new Head Coach and it’s not always pretty, but so far it’s resulted in wins.
One thing the Bears have done better than anyone else this year is snatch chains (force turnovers). Chicago leads the league in turnover differential (+17) and leads the league in forced turnovers with 17 interceptions and 9 forced fumbles.
Last week we saw this run game come alive. D’Andre Swift and the rookie Kyle Monangai combined for 40 carries, 268 total yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns. The two combined to average 6.7 yards per carry and really won Chicago that game.
Williams finished with 154 yards through the air, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. He completed just 47% of his throws last week, making that the third straight game he’s completed fewer than 55% of his passes. Caleb’s dead last in the NFL in completion percentage, completing just 58.1% of his passes. Despite a poor completion percentage, he is averaging 226.8 pass yards per game this year with 17 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and a passer rating of 88.2.
Sunday’s Best Bets
Danny’s Best Bet
Josh Jacobs o77.5 Rushing Yards (-110) | BetOnline
Well, as the resident die-hard Chicago Bears fan, this game is equally terrifying and exciting.
Sure, the Bears have benefited from one of the league’s easier schedules, but watching them win close games – after decades of doing the exact opposite – has been an incredible experience. It felt like Ben Johnson and his team finally put the league on notice, and not just because he took his shirt off, but because on a short week he led his crew into the defending Super Bowl champions’ house and embarrassed them.
Can the same result occur against their biggest rival the following week?
As much as I’d love to scream “yes,” I can’t honestly say that. I hope they prove me wrong, but I need to see it to believe it. I imagine these teams will split their two meetings this season, with the Packers getting the better of the Bears in Week 14.
However, I have no interest in taking a side here – where I do see value is with Green Bay’s starting running back, Josh Jacobs.
While Chicago’s defense is improving and generates the most turnovers in the league, it still struggles against the run. Opposing tailbacks are averaging 5.2 yards per carry against this Bears unit (30th). Chicago also ranks 28th in rush success rate and 21st in rush EPA allowed.
Even though Saquon Barkley managed just 56 rushing yards last week, he still averaged 4.3 yards per carry. Before him, the Bears allowed Jaylen Warren to rush for 68 yards, Kenneth Gainwell for 92, Aaron Jones for 70, and Tyrone Tracy for 71.
If Matt LaFleur calls this game the way he has most of the season, we’ll see a heavy dose of Jacobs. And why shouldn’t the Packers lean on it? They should be exploiting the weakest part of this Bears team – their run defense.
V’s Best Bet
Bears vs. Packers u44.5 (-110) | BetOnline
Divisional unders.
The Packers defense is giving up just 18.8 points per game this year and rank 8th in opponent rush yards per game. The Packers have done a great job at limiting opposing RBs and it was on full display last week against the tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
If the Bears hope to score points this week they’ll need to move the ball through the air, something the Packers have limited a ton of this year. Caleb Williams had a tough time against pressure this year, completing just 37.2% of his passes when pressured and a passer rating of 54.2.
Chicago’s run defense has also been really bad this year. They rank 28th in rush yards allowed and the Packers have two RBs more than capable of grinding out tough yards. Add to that the fact that a majority of the Bears offensive success has come on the ground. I’m expecting a ton of running in this game, long drawn out drives and a play clock that continues to run.
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