A battle for the top spot in the AFC North takes place this Sunday in Baltimore, where the 6-6 Ravens host the 6-6 Steelers.
Both teams are coming off losses, though the circumstances are much different. For Baltimore, the defeat snapped a five-game winning streak. For Pittsburgh, it marked the Steelers’ third loss in their last four games.
So which team separates itself and takes control of the division? Let’s break it down in my Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers preview and predictions.
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Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview & Predictions
Will Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin be able to rally his guys to overcome the Ravens on Sunday?
Ravens vs Steelers Preview
Just about everything that could’ve gone wrong did for Baltimore on Thanksgiving when it hosted Cincinnati in a 32-14 loss.
The Ravens committed a season-high five turnovers, including four fumbles – one of which went into the end zone as Isaiah Likely was on his way to scoring a touchdown – along with a costly interception from Lamar Jackson.
While it was an unacceptable performance from a two-time MVP and a playoff-caliber team, it shouldn’t completely derail their season or change our perspective on what this group is capable of. That’s not to say I believe Baltimore is a Super Bowl contender, but it is a team capable of dismantling a much more discombobulated Steelers squad. In sports handicapping, it’s imperative to understand that no team is ever as good or as bad as it looked the week prior. Avoiding recency bias is crucial when assessing these matchups.
Baltimore played its sloppiest game of the season – should we really expect a repeat of that against Pittsburgh? The answer is no.
The Steelers have flashed red flags all year long, starting with their aging, underperforming quarterback dealing with injuries and extending to their swiss-cheese defense that ranks 28th in both total yards allowed (365.1) and passing yards allowed per game (247.4). They also sit 28th in rush EPA and 24th in rush success rate allowed, giving up 4.3 yards per carry – a number that’s increased to 4.6 over the last three games.
Last week, Pittsburgh surrendered the most rushing yards ever recorded in their home stadium, as James Cook and the Bills piled up 249 yards on the ground. Cook logged 144 of those yards himself at 4.5 yards per attempt.
Offensively, the Steelers continue to struggle. They rank 18th in success rate and 17th in EPA per play. Their only consistent strength has been their ground game, which sits 10th in rush success rate and 12th in rush EPA. Overall, they’re putting up just 281.7 yards per game, which ranks 27th in the NFL.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers’ lack of efficiency in the passing game has dragged the offense down to 21st in dropback EPA and 20th in dropback success rate. Among 33 qualified quarterbacks this year, Rodgers ranks 28th in success rate, 24th in EPA per play and 20th in CPOE. Through 11 games, he’s barely eclipsed 2,000 passing yards, holding a 65% completion rate and a 19-7 TD-to-INT ratio, and he has yet to throw for 250 yards in a game this season.
Perhaps things could improve against a mediocre Baltimore defense – a unit surrendering 232.1 passing yards per game (26th), 10.4 yards per completion (22nd), and ranking 21st in dropback EPA. Much like Pittsburgh, the Ravens have their own defensive issues. However, their offensive ceiling is the difference-maker.
Lamar Jackson has underperformed this season, yet Baltimore has still found ways to win despite his inconsistency and absence due to injury. And if Jackson can’t get going, they have future Hall of Famer Derrick Henry to pick up the slack. That shouldn’t be an issue against a Steelers run defense that was just massacred at home on Sunday.
Mike Tomlin’s offensive game plan is simple: establish the run and throw only when necessary. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell can contribute, but defending the run is where Baltimore has shown signs of improvement, even if they still sit slightly below average in EPA and success rate. Over their last three games, they’ve held opposing backs to just 3.7 yards per carry, down from their season average of 4.4. They also rank sixth in opponent red-zone success rate at 53%, a number that has improved to just 20% over their last three contests.
Ravens vs Steelers Prediction
Baltimore has a slight edge defensively, but more importantly, it holds the far stronger offense. Lamar Jackson is coming off his worst outing of the season, completing just 53% of his passes for 246 yards on 17 completions against the league’s worst defense in Cincinnati. He’ll be eager to bounce back in what is now the most important game of the year for Baltimore.
I do believe the Ravens will win this game, but given how unstable their defense can be, I’m holding off on laying their spread of -6.
While I do expect Lamar to play better than last week, I’m still going to bet an under on one of his props: Lamar Jackson under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-128).
Jackson is averaging 1.7 passing touchdowns per game, totaling 15 in nine games this season. He’s only gone over this mark in four games – and all of those came before November. Over his last four outings, he hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown; in fact, he’s thrown zero touchdowns and three interceptions across his previous three games.
Pittsburgh has been susceptible through the air this year, but they’ve held up reasonably well when it comes to passing touchdowns. Four of the past five quarterbacks they’ve faced have failed to throw two or more scores. And historically, Mike Tomlin has defended Jackson well. In six career starts against the Steelers, Jackson averages just 1.3 passing touchdowns, clearing this number in only two of those six matchups.
Given how poor the Steelers have been against the run and how inconsistent Jackson has been, I expect Baltimore to lean on Derrick Henry and Jackson’s legs near the red zone. These Ravens–Steelers matchups also tend to be uglier, lower-scoring games. And as shaky as the Steelers defense has been overall, they perform well in the red zone, ranking 10th in defensive red-zone efficiency (54.8%), while the Ravens sit 30th in offensive red-zone success rate (46.5%).
Best Bet: Lamar Jackson Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-128)
NFL Record: 72-58-1 (+5.06 units)
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