Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears
Entering Week 8 of the NFL season, the Baltimore Ravens find themselves in a must-win situation when they host the Chicago Bears on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium.
It may sound hyperbolic, but that’s exactly what’s at stake for John Harbaugh’s crew. The Ravens sit at 1-5 and last in the AFC North. If they don’t start winning now, their postseason hopes could quickly fade. A big reason for their struggles has been the absence of Lamar Jackson, who left their Week 4 matchup in Kansas City with a hamstring injury. He missed the next two games, but benefited from an extra week of rest during Baltimore’s bye.
Lamar Jackson has returned to Ravens practice. pic.twitter.com/Go3xyG6zo7
— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) October 22, 2025
Jackson has returned to practice in a limited capacity, and the expectation is that he’ll be ready to suit up against Caleb Williams and the red-hot Bears, who enter on a four-game winning streak. So, how should we approach this matchup that carries plenty of playoff implications? I’ll tell you with my Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears preview and picks.
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Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears NFL Betting Insights
Is Caleb Williams capable over beating Baltimore on the road?
Ravens vs Bears Preview
To think the Ravens’ issues stem solely from Jackson’s absence would be foolish. With Jackson under center, Baltimore still went 1-3, but it wasn’t entirely on him. The main culprit behind this disastrous season has been the Ravens’ defense.
What was once the identity of this organization has now become its biggest vulnerability. Baltimore ranks 28th in opponent red-zone efficiency, allowing touchdowns on 70% of trips inside the 20. The Ravens also rank 27th in yards per play allowed (5.7), dead last in EPA per play, and 30th in success rate allowed. There’s no way around it – this defense stinks.
The good news is they’ll get to host an erratic Bears offense. While Chicago has taken steps forward under new head coach Ben Johnson, it’s clear the offense still lacks consistent rhythm. The Bears rank 24th in offensive success rate and 20th in EPA per play.
Caleb Williams has stepped up in key moments late in games, but continues to struggle with consistency early on. The Bears have leaned heavily on D’Andre Swift, who has totaled 232 rushing yards on 33 carries (7.1 yards per attempt) over his last two games. Prior to that, he hadn’t eclipsed 63 yards in any of the first four contests. Swift should again be in a solid position to produce, as Baltimore’s defense allows 4.5 yards per carry and ranks 31st in rush EPA and 27th in rush success rate allowed.
On the flip side, Chicago’s defense has nearly as many red flags as Baltimore’s. Despite recent improvement, the Bears still give up the most yards per play in the NFL at 6.2, though that number has dropped to 5.7 over the last three weeks. Their red-zone defense sits just ahead of Baltimore’s at 68.4%, and they rank 28th in defensive success rate. The one positive is their climb to 12th in EPA per play allowed. Outside of their Week 2 loss in Detroit, when the Lions hung 52 on them, no opponent has scored more than 27 points. Facing Lamar Jackson will be a different challenge entirely, but the progression is at least encouraging for Bears fans.
What’s really going to be an issue for defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s group is containing future Hall of Famer Derrick Henry. He’s had a volatile season, but is coming off a 122-yard performance against the Rams and had a bye week to refocus. The biggest problem for Henry this year has been ball security – he’s fumbled three times, including a few costly ones late in games. That could be dangerous against a Chicago defense that leads the league in takeaways, averaging 2.7 per game. Still, if Henry holds onto the ball, he should have plenty of success against a Bears defense allowing opposing running backs to average 5.3 yards per carry, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Baltimore vs Chicago Picks
As a die-hard Bears fan, I hate to say it, but this is a brutal spot for Chicago. Baltimore is in dire need of a win, coming off a bye week and getting its franchise quarterback back in the lineup. While the Bears’ four-game win streak has been fun, it’s also been very telling. There are still plenty of holes within this organization, and they’ve been able to overcome them mostly because of weak competition. Still, credit where it’s due – Chicago has fought through adversity, stepped up in clutch moments, and shown real growth, something we haven’t seen in, well, basically forever. This season is about laying the foundation under Ben Johnson, and simply keeping this game competitive would continue that progress. A loss wouldn’t be shocking.
The Ravens are laying -6.5 in this matchup, and the total sits around 49.5. Both numbers have held steady since opening.
Because both defenses are capable of completely imploding, I can’t trust either side against the spread. Instead, I’m looking toward the total. The forecast in Baltimore on Sunday looks ideal – no wind or rain, with temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s – which should set up for plenty of scoring opportunities. But rather than betting over 49.5, I’m taking a slightly different approach: over 5.5 total touchdowns at -115.
Realistically, to clear 49.5 points, you’d need at least six combined touchdowns, and even then, assuming all extra points are made, that only gets you to 42 points. You’d still need a few field goals or more touchdowns to hit the over, which is a lot to ask. This feels more like a game where the Ravens score four touchdowns and the Bears add two, maybe with a field goal mixed in – something like 28-17. That would still land under 49.5, but would cash the touchdown prop.
The safer, more valuable route is targeting total touchdowns scored, especially considering how bad both defenses have been in the red zone. The Ravens rank 28th in opponent red-zone efficiency, allowing touchdowns on 70% of trips inside the 20. The Bears still allow the most yards per play in the NFL at 6.2, and their red-zone defense, which sits just ahead of Baltimore’s at 68.4%, has actually worsened to 80% over their last three games.
Best Bet: Ravens / Bears Over 5.5 Total Touchdowns Scored (-115) BetOnline
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