Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks and Predictions (9/7) – NFC South Showdown

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NFL Fantasy Picks

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: How about an NFC South matchup with a spread under a field goal to kick off the season? A great game awaits in Atlanta, where the Falcons host the Buccaneers in Week 1. Michael Penix Jr. enters the season as the team’s starting quarterback, while Baker Mayfield and company have championship aspirations after last season. Let’s dig into my best bets between the Bucs and Falcons.

Check out the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks. Plus, take some time to check out our NFL Divisional Previews below.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Betting Insights

Michael Penix Jr. won't see the field tonight against Tennessee - Titans Falcons Picks

Can Michael Penix Jr. do enough to overcome the Bucs on Sunday?

Setting the Stage

The betting market opened with Tampa Bay as a 1.5-point favorite, and the total at 48.5. At the moment, the consensus number on the Bucs is -2, and the total is commonly listed at 47 or 47.5.

Despite Tampa Bay (10-7) finishing with better results than Atlanta (8-9), two of the Bucs’ losses came at the hands of the Falcons. The Kirk Cousins-led Falcons defeated the Bucs 36-30 in overtime at home and then 31-26 at Raymond James Stadium.

Will Michael Penix Jr. have the same success? There is added pressure on the young lefty since he’s officially taking over as the leader of the offense, but he faces a Bucs defense that showed plenty of vulnerabilities last season. Tampa Bay ranked 23rd in success rate and 17th in EPA per play allowed.

In three full games, Penix completed 58 of 100 passes for 737 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He was not a factor in the ground game.

On the other side, Baker Mayfield is looking to follow up a career year in 2024, when he threw for 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He can start his journey toward that stat line or better in Week 1 against a Falcons defense that finished 24th in success rate and 20th in EPA per play allowed.

Prop Watch

The player most fans will be watching is Bijan Robinson. The 23-year-old is coming off a season in which he was finally fully utilized, rushing for more than 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns, while adding 431 receiving yards and a touchdown through the air.

A prop that stands out for him in this matchup is his rush attempts. Last season, he averaged about 18 carries per game. Currently, his rushing attempts prop is 16.5 with -115 juice to the over. Defensively, the Bucs’ strength is stopping the run, but the Falcons need to get Robinson involved and relieve some pressure on Penix in the opener.

Plus, when Penix started last season, Robinson’s numbers climbed, averaging 22 carries per game. Let’s hope that trends continues in Week 1. 

Game Play

This is a tricky game to handicap. Division games in Week 1 often are, especially with narrow spreads. The fact that Tampa Bay lost both games against the Falcons last year, along with the potential for progression, leads me to believe the Bucs will find a way to come out on top. It’s Mayfield’s time to shine, while Penix may need time to get into rhythm.

I don’t have strong enough conviction to back the side or total, though, so my only official play is the Bijan Robinson prop.

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