Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins
When it rains it pours, which is not only true for the weather in South Beach, but for their professional football team, too. The Miami Dolphins dropped their third game in a row, bringing them to a 1-6 record. More than likely, that’ll move to 1-7 after this Sunday’s meeting in Atlanta against the Falcons – a team eager to get back into the win column after an ugly 20-10 loss on Sunday Night Football in San Francisco.
Which team will correct their errors and right the ship on Sunday afternoon? I’ll tell you with my Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins preview, props and picks.
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Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins NFL Betting Insights
Can Michael Penix Jr. bounce back after a poor performance last week?
Falcons vs Dolphins Preview
Fading the Miami Dolphins last Sunday turned out to be my favorite wager of the NFL season so far. In fact, I even used them as a survivor pick. It was the perfect storm for the Cleveland Browns, quite literally, with 50-mph wind gusts, rain and cold temperatures creating miserable conditions for a team used to South Florida’s sunshine. The weather alone was a major factor, but so were the matchups. Cleveland’s powerful ground game had a clear edge against one of the league’s worst run defenses, and their own dominant defense did the rest, leading to a 31-6 beatdown.
Betting against this Dolphins defense is something I’ll be looking to do every week from here on out. How could you not? This unit ranks 31st in EPA per play, 29th in yards per play allowed (6.0), and 27th in success rate. They’re dead last in both dropback EPA and dropback success rate. If there’s ever a spot for Michael Penix Jr. to bounce back, this is it.
It should also be a strong matchup on the ground for both Falcons running backs, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Miami is allowing 5.2 yards per carry (T-30th) and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game (T-29th). However, it’s worth noting that out of the eight rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed, four have come from quarterbacks and three from Quinshon Judkins last week.
Conversely, Miami’s offense may not have as much to look forward to when facing this Atlanta defense. The Falcons’ defense has been the backbone of their success this season, allowing just 4.9 yards per play and ranking eighth in EPA per play. Still, there are cracks in that front. We saw it Sunday night when they faced Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers – CMC carried the ball 24 times, averaged 5.4 yards per attempt, and totaled 129 yards with two scores. Atlanta is giving up 4.7 yards per rush and ranks 31st in rush success rate allowed.
If there’s a path for the Dolphins to move the ball, it’ll be through their star tailback, De’Von Achane, who’s averaging 12.7 carries for 67 yards per game at 5.3 yards per attempt.
Atlanta vs Miami Props
Let’s keep the spotlight on De’Von Achane as we explore player props for this Week 8 matchup. Achane’s rushing yards prop is listed as low as 60.5 – surprisingly modest for a back who’s been as explosive and efficient as he has. The logic behind that number makes some sense: oddsmakers expect the Dolphins to trail and lean heavier on the passing game.
However, Mike McDaniel, being the offensive mastermind that he is, should recognize that Atlanta’s biggest weakness lies in its run defense, and he’d be wise to exploit it. Miami’s offensive struggles have stemmed largely from Tua Tagovailoa’s inconsistency, so what better way to settle things down than by putting the ball in the hands of your most dynamic playmaker? Doing so not only simplifies the offense but directly attacks the softest part of the Falcons’ defense.
Even in losses, Achane has cleared this number, and against tougher defenses. Two weeks ago, he averaged eight yards per carry and racked up 128 rushing yards in a 29-27 loss to the Chargers. Last Sunday, in a 31-6 blowout loss to Cleveland, he still managed 6.3 yards per carry for 82 yards against a Browns defense that ranks second in both EPA per play and success rate allowed. Given that Atlanta is allowing 4.7 yards per rush and owns the league’s second-worst success rate against the run, Achane has a great opportunity to eclipse 60 yards in this spot.
Another prop I’d consider is Tyler Allgeier to score a touchdown at the price of +150. And before anyone freaks out, this isn’t a fade of Bijan Robinson. Would you rather bet Bijan to score at roughly -250, or grab Allgeier at plus money?
Allgeier has logged eight rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line this season and has three rushing touchdowns overall. Bijan, on the other hand, has only four rush attempts from that range and two rushing scores total – though he does have one receiving touchdown inside the 10. Still, when it comes to goal-line work, Allgeier continues to see heavier usage. Combine that with a +150 price tag, and he’s clearly the more appealing option in this market. I haven’t bet this, but if you’re considering a running back prop on the side of Atlanta, this approach could offer more value than anything surrounding Robinson.
Falcons vs Dolphins Picks
Outside of the Achane prop, I’d also look to tease down the Falcons. Atlanta is currently laying -7 across most sportsbooks after opening at -5.5, so they’ve already drawn plenty of market attention. The total has also seen movement, dropping from 46.5 to 44.5. Drake London was announced that he’ll be out, but I still expect the Falcons to handle business.
Rather than laying the full touchdown, teasing the Falcons down makes for a much more appealing play. Using a standard six-point teaser, you can bring Atlanta from -7 to -1 and pair them with another side. The best partner right now looks to be the Eagles, who are laying -7.5 at home against the Giants. A six-point adjustment brings them down to -1.5, a perfect setup for a teaser pairing, especially in a divisional revenge spot for Philadelphia.
That’s how I’m betting this game outside of the prop market.
Bets:
- De’Von Achance Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-120) BetOnline
- 6-Point Teaser: ATL -1 / PHI -1.5 (-120) BetOnline
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