Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Preview & Predictions (11/16): Can Atlanta Answer?

When assessing the Carolina Panthers, I still can’t help but call this team overrated. Granted, how overrated can a 5-5 team really be? Sure, they pulled off a massive upset a couple of weeks ago in Green Bay, but the Packers clearly aren’t among the NFL’s elite. Their other wins came against a struggling Falcons team and three of the league’s worst defenses in Dallas, Miami, and the New York Jets. Outside of that, they opened the year with losses to the Jaguars and Cardinals – which look even worse in hindsight – then got stomped 42-13 at New England. Last week’s 17-7 home loss to the Saints tells us all we need to know: this team isn’t trustworthy, or ready to be a favorite.

Their defense isn’t as good as it might appear, either. They’ve benefited from playing weak opponents, inflating their numbers. While Carolina ranks 12th in points allowed per game (22.2), they sit just 23rd in defensive EPA per play. They’re surrendering 5.6 yards per play (22nd), a number that’s increased to 6.1 over their last three games. Against the pass, they’ve been vulnerable – giving up 10.6 yards per completion (28th) and 11.8 over their last three. That sets up well for a struggling Michael Penix Jr. to get back on track.

The southpaw quarterback has completed only 58.8% of his passes for 1,807 yards with a 9-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His offense sits 23rd in dropback EPA and 22nd in success rate. He’ll need Bijan Robinson to help move the ball – and that’s possible against a Carolina run defense ranked 20th in rush EPA and allowing 4.9 yards per carry over its past three games.

Ultimately, this matchup will hinge on how efficient Penix can be. There’s no way around it – he’s been subpar and has held his team back from several winnable games.

On the other side, the Panthers’ quarterback situation hasn’t been much better. Bryce Young is completing 61.7% of his passes for 1,514 yards, with an 11–7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He ranks 30th in EPA per play, while Penix is 24th among 33 qualified quarterbacks. The biggest difference between the two is their average depth of target (aDOT): Penix ranks third in the league at 8.8, whereas Young sits 28th at 6.5.