Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills: The 4-1 Buffalo Bills head to Atlanta to take on the 2-2 Falcons. Buffalo enters this Monday Night Football matchup fresh off its first loss of the season – a 23-20 defeat at home to division rival New England. On the other side, Atlanta went into its bye week on a high note after a 34-27 win over the Washington Commanders.
Can the Bills bounce back against Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons, or will Atlanta keep its momentum rolling? Let’s dive deeper into this prime-time matchup with my Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills predictions and props.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Insights
Can Michael Penix Jr. step up and overcome the Bills on Monday Night?
Falcons vs Bills Predictions: Despite their loss on Sunday Night Football in Week 5, the Bills still grade out as one of the most efficient teams in the NFL.
Buffalo ranks first in offensive EPA per play and fourth in success rate. Defensively, there are some flaws, but nothing overly alarming. The Bills are allowing 22.6 points per game while ranking 12th in success rate and 17th in defensive EPA per play.
The main concern lies within their front seven, where they’ve struggled against the run, allowing 5.6 yards per carry (30th), ranking 27th in rush EPA, and 20th in rush success rate allowed.
That weakness will be tested this week against one of the league’s premier running backs, Bijan Robinson. It’s likely the reason we’ve seen betting support shift toward Atlanta. The Falcons opened as 5.5-point underdogs but now sit around +3.5 at most books. The total has also ticked upward, moving from 48.5 to 50.
The move on the total is a bit puzzling. If the betting support for Atlanta stems from their advantage on the ground, you’d think that type of game plan would lead to fewer points. The more the Falcons control time of possession, the more clock they burn and the fewer opportunities Buffalo’s explosive offense will have with the ball.
At the same time, I expect Michael Penix Jr. to be relatively limited. On the season, he’s averaging just 19.5 completions on 31.3 attempts for 229.5 passing yards per game. The Bills’ secondary has performed well, holding opponents to only nine yards per completion (fourth-best in the league) while ranking inside the top 10 in both dropback EPA and success rate allowed.
Atlanta’s defense has been one of the bright spots of its young season, ranking seventh in EPA per play allowed and holding opponents to just 4.6 yards per play – tied for fourth-best in the league. Much like their upcoming opponent, the Falcons excel against the pass but struggle against the run. They rank fourth in dropback success rate and sixth in dropback EPA, yet are allowing 4.6 yards per carry (24th) while sitting 27th in rush success rate and 20th in rush EPA per play allowed.
I also expect the Bills to lean more on their ground game, which adds to my conviction on the under. The best number currently available is 50.5, and that’s the spot I’m taking.
Best Bet: Falcons vs Bills Under 50.5 (-118) BetOnline
Atlanta vs Buffalo Props: If you’re looking for players to root for tonight, the data points toward both running backs, Bijan Robinson and James Cook, being in strong positions to produce. However, the market has already priced that in, leaving little value on their props.
Instead, I’m banking on a player’s mistake tonight – Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. As mentioned earlier, the strength of this Buffalo defense lies in its secondary, and I expect it to force Penix into a few costly errors. I also lean toward the Bills covering -3.5, which would likely put Atlanta in catch-up mode and force Penix to throw more often, creating additional chances for turnovers.
The Bills have only two interceptions this season, but Penix has thrown three over his last two games. I’m betting on him to throw another tonight at -120.
Best Prop Bet: Michael Penix Jr. Over 0.5 Total Interceptions Thrown (-120)
Still Didn’t Get Your NFL Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
More NFL News
NFL Betting News
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings Preview & Predictions (12/14)
NFL Betting News
Chasing Six | NFL Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER